The offseason might still be days away from starting, and the beginning of the league year even further, but the Redskins had no problem shaking up the outlook for free agency and the draft this week. Even though the team has gotten excellent quarterback play from Kirk Cousins since he took over as starter in Washington, Dan Snyder's franchise went and got themselves a new quarterback this week, agreeing to a trade that will ship Alex Smith to Washington for Kendall Fuller and a third-round pick.
You can read all about the implications of the trade here, but what we're going to look at right now is how it affects the first round of the draft. What I'm going to do is list my totally scientific calculations that each team in the first round will draft a quarterback or sign Cousins. Seriously, the probabilities you see are lab-tested and 100 percent accurate. There were even big, white lab coats involved.
You'll also get the player I now think each team is going to draft. Again, 100 percent accurate. Don't even bother tuning in in April.
Below is the current draft order, which features a coin flip at No. 9 and 10 and the possibility of a swap at No. 31 and 32.
1. Cleveland Browns
Chances this pick is a QB: 80 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 5 percent
Cousins would be a great pickup, and the Browns certainly have the cap space to fit him in. But the Browns have their pick of QBs in a draft with multiple sure first-rounders, and I'd be surprised if they passed up the chance to lock in a franchise passer at a relative bargain.
The pick: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
Note that I'm not staying there's a 80 percent chance the Browns take Darnold. It's still too early in the process to tell who they'll anoint as their top option. But he's as good a bet as any.
. New York Giants
Chances this pick is a QB: 50 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 1 percent
Whether the Giants pick a QB will likely come down to if their No. 1 option is available, and that depends on who the Browns take. I could see this pick going either way. What seems very unlikely is the team ponying up for Cousins while Eli Manning is still around.
The pick: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
Barkley is right up there as one of the best prospects at his position -- and possibly No. 1 -- heading to the NFL in recent years. If the Giants aren't locked into a QB -- and they shouldn't be -- he's a fine option for No. 2.
. Indianapolis Colts
Chances this pick is a QB: 1 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 0 percent
With Andrew Luck apparently on the road to recovery, there's no chance the Colts are signing Cousins. But I wouldn't completely rule out a quarterback here if Luck's recovery isn't as rosy by late April. Still, there's next to no chance this will be a QB.
The pick: Bradley Chubb, DE/OLB, NC State
Chubb is easily the best pass-rusher in the class, and the Colts need to boost their pass rush after recording just 25 sacks in 2017 (31st in NFL). Chubb would have an immediate impact, and the Colts should be happy with either him or Barkley here.
4. Cleveland Browns (from Texans)
Chances this pick is a QB: 5 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 5 percent
We went over the chances they sign Cousins above, and I don't think there's much of a chance of Cleveland taking a QB with this pick. If they've settled on a guy as No. 1 in the class and someone they want as their franchise QB, they're going to take him at No. 1. Why risk losing out?
The pick: Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS, Alabama
The Browns keep adding blue-chippers to the secondary, this time with the best safety prospect in the 2018 class. There's no harm in trying Fitzpatrick at the more valuable cornerback position to see if he sticks, but he's a 10-year starter at free safety.
5. Denver Broncos
Chances this pick is a QB: 60 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 35 percent
I'm making the Broncos the second favorite for Cousins, and that's mainly because they have nowhere near the cap room of the team I have first. Still, Denver needs to address the QB position in some way this offseason.
The pick: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The Broncos seem to be a decent trade-up candidate in order to pick their preferred option at QB. But unless they plan to move to No. 1, it might make sense not to trade any draft capital to move up, since there's a decent shot their QB falls to them.
6. New York Jets
Chances this pick is a QB: 50 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 40 percent
Here's my favorite for Cousins, and in this mock draft we're going to assume they use their massive amount of cap space to sign him. The only teams with more cap space, per Spotrac, are the Browns, Colts and 49ers.
The pick: Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa
With quarterback no longer a need, the Jets nab the best cornerback in the draft and continue building an excellent secondary to compete in the AFC. If Cousins is signed, expect the Jets to be a trendy wild-card pick.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chances this pick is a QB: 0 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 0 percent
Maybe we can't completely rule out the Bucs drafting a quarterback, but we can almost definitely rule out the Bucs drafting a quarterback. Call it close to zero percent.
The pick: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame
The Buccaneers have enough needs that this pick is probably going to be best non-QB available, though you can most likely rule out a wide receiver or tight end too. Nelson is probably the safest pick in the draft and should be a 10-year starter inside.
8. Chicago Bears
Chances this pick is a QB: 0 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 0 percent
They just drafted their franchise QB, so they're good. Expect them to spend the draft trying to unload Mike Glennon on a team who misses out on their preferred target (Buffalo? Arizona?).
The pick: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
This might be a touch high for Ridley, but the Bears have next to nothing in the receiver department, which is bad news when you're trying to develop the guy you just took No. 2 overall into a franchise quarterback.
9. San Francisco 49ers
Chances this pick is a QB: 0 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 0 percent
Maybe if you squint you can see a scenario where Jimmy Garoppolo refuses to sign a long-term deal, and the 49ers get worried he'll leave after a couple franchise tags a la Cousins. But that scenario's close enough to zero to move on.
The pick: Derwin James, SS, Florida State
The 49ers focused on defense in last year's draft, and now that they have a franchise quarterback for the price of a second-round pick, why not keep piling on the other side of the ball? James can do a lot of things from the safety position, and versatility is big in today's game.
10. Oakland Raiders
Chances this pick is a QB: 0 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 0 percent
They just blew nine figures on a quarterback, so I think they're good on the Cousins/rookie QB front.
The pick: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The Raiders have a franchise quarterback, but there are plenty of issues on the defensive side when you get past superstar pass rusher Khalil Mack. Smith fits the humongous need at linebacker, even if NaVorro Bowman is retained.
11. Miami Dolphins
Chances this pick is a QB: 30 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 2 percent
If the board falls right for Miami, I see no reason they can't take a QB. However, they're close to the bottom of the league in terms of cap room, so making a play for Cousins seems far-fetched.
The pick: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
If only two quarterbacks go in the top 10, why not a QB for Miami? They showed interest in Allen at the Senior Bowl, and Ryan Tannehill is coming off a major injury with a contract that could be cut for cap room at any time (though it probably wouldn't be enough to land Cousins this year). Draft Allen, give Tannehill a year to re-establish value, and re-evaluate the situation in 2019.
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Chances this pick is a QB: 10 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 2 percent
The Bengals have more cap room than the average team, so I don't think we can rule out a run at Cousins. And if the right QB is available here, who knows? Andy Dalton's dead cap number is only $2.4 million for 2018.
The pick: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
The Bengals have enough needs that making quarterback one of them doesn't make sense. The offensive line was atrocious last year, and McGlinchey hopefully won't be the first step they take to fixing it (get busy in March, Bengals!)
13. Washington Redskins
Chances this pick is a QB: 0 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 0 percent
With Alex Smith topping $70 million guaranteed on his reported deal, he's locked in for at least three years. That makes quarterback a no-go in this draft.
The pick: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
Payne is a difference-maker on the defensive line as he proved in the College Football Playoff. Reuniting him with Alabama teammate Jonathan Allen makes plenty of sense.
14. Green Bay Packers
Chances this pick is a QB: 2 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 0 percent
Yes, Aaron Rodgers is still in town, but he's 34 years old. Brett Favre was 35 when Rodgers was drafted. It's not likely they draft Rodgers' heir apparent, but you can't completely rule it out.
The pick: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
The Packers could use some help in the secondary, and I think Ward is the last of the top-tier cornerbacks left on the board. He gives the team a good foundation at the position along with Kevin King.
15. Arizona Cardinals
Chances this pick is a QB: 60 percent
Chances Cousins is signed: 8 percent
Seven percent doesn't seem like much, but it makes the Cardinals third favorites in the Cousins race according to my calculations. Cap room might be an issue, and the far more likely scenario is still drafting a QB.
The pick: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Opinions on Mayfield seem all over the map, but he was drawing some heat during Senior Bowl week. Provided three QBs are off the board at this point, this feels like his floor, even factoring in the eventual Cousins signing.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Chances this pick is a QB: 1 percent
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