9 NBA free agents who should get max contracts in 2018 - SB Nation

The 2017 NBA offseason was completely bonkers, owing to a couple of blockbuster trades, a few high-profile free agents, and a league-wide allergic reaction to the Warriors' dominance. Instead of teams shrugging and conceding, franchises like the Rockets, Celtics, Thunder, Raptors, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers doubled down on attempts to topple mighty Golden State. We're still waiting to find if any of those blueprints will succeed.

It's not too early, though, to look at what awaits us in the 2018 offseason. This is now a 12-month league, and July might be the most important time. This summer, the two best players in the world are free agents. While only one is believed to be considering a move, in this league you just never know.

We looked at the books and came up with this list of 10 players most likely to end up with new maximum-value contracts in the 2018 offseason. Note that we're not including any third-year first-round picks who can receive maximum early extensions because none of them would be free agents this summer. Only players who can become free agents this summer based on current contracts need apply.

1. Kevin Durant

Durant should be considered the top NBA free agent of 2018, even though he's the least likely to switch teams (other than Nikola Jokic) and the most likely to opt into his 2018-19 contract.

Durant signed a two-year deal substantially below the maximum in 2017, but his team included a second-year player option on it. The reasons are mysterious, but since Durant can become a free agent, we're listing him as such.

Obviously, he would be well worth the max for any team who could reel him in, even if no team but the Warriors have even fever dreams of landing a meeting. You do wonder if LeBron, who picked Durant in the NBA All-Star draft and brought him along for an Uninterrupted conversation in which they buttered each other up, could convince him to join him as a package deal for the Lakers. What a clash that would set up in the West — LeBron and Durant in L.A. vs. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson in Golden State.

Sorry, this is turning into fanfic.

2. LeBron James

No one knows where LeBron will go this summer, but we all know he's getting the max. He's declared he's done with discounts, and rightly so. LeBron will receive a full max if he wishes it, though no one would be surprised if he continued doing deals two to three years in length with player options and early termination options. (LeBron likes options, if you can't tell.)

Teams will once again be throwing themselves at LeBron. Obviously, he won't be doing a T.V. special to announce his decision again. But it'll be interesting to see whether he goes with a 2010-style franchise pitch combine or the 2014-vintage targeted discussion with a pre-selected suitor.

3. Paul George

George has delivered in his first season outside of Indianapolis, continuing as a legitimate two-way superstar. He's a top contender for Defensive Player of the Year.

It would appear to be a two-team battle for George at this point, with the Thunder and the Lakers in the mix.

Just 27 years old, George is an obvious candidate for a long maximum deal. Other than Durant, actually, he has the lowest downside risk of anyone on the list because of his age and injury profile, excepting the broken leg none of us will ever forget. (LeBron, though superhuman, is six years older with much more mileage.)

What a catch!

4. DeMarcus Cousins

Speaking of downside risk, here's a big ol' dice roll for you.

Cousins will be coming off of a ruptured Achilles. Teams won't be able to see much of his recovery when July's free agency period arrives, and Cousins is expected to be out of action until at least November.

The Pelicans should have a strong grasp on how the recovery has gone, and they'll have a huge advantage in being able to offer a fifth year because they'll have Cousins' Bird rights. They are the team most likely to offer Cousins a max deal for a couple of reasons: Boogie clicked with Anthony Davis, who will be a free agent in the summer of 2021, and New Orleans is capped out either way, so their best bet to field a playoff team in 2019 is to keep Cousins.

But other teams could come calling and offering a max, perhaps with protections or heavy insurance. Cousins is 27 and one of the most productive players in the NBA. No one has ever come back from Achilles and played at the same level.

But someone will believe in modern medicine and Cousins' upside enough to take a plunge, even if for whatever reason the Pelicans don't.

5. Nikola Jokic

Jokic's summer can go a number of ways. He's the only player on this list whose team has an option on him. Normally, the Nuggets would obviously exercise their option, keeping the big Serbian locked up one more year for cheap.

But as I explain in a piece on Jokic, the Nuggets can ensure they have an opportunity to retain Jokic for at least four additional years beyond 2018-19 if they decline the option and make him a restricted free agent in 2018.

If the Nuggets pull the trigger on this plan — which they should — Jokic will get a max, almost assuredly from Denver in the first minute the team can offer it.

6. DeAndre Jordan

Jordan will be an excellent test of a couple of things this summer.

The first is whether the relatively few teams with cap space want to use that space to take advantage of a league without much space. There's a big opportunity for these teams to compete for good players within a shallow competitive pool. It's most likely that some teams will look to leverage the situation, and some will not.

The other big test is whether the Clippers can convince another one of their best players that it's worth staying along for the ride. Because the Clippers didn't unload Jordan at the deadline knowing he could walk this summer, they must be open to bringing him back. L.A.'s front office would probably rather Jordan exercise his $24 million player option for the 2018-19 than to compete with the market for his services.

But after paying a fair price for the older Lou Williamsin the form of a midseason extension, the Clippers giving Jordan a big (but below max) multi-year contract wouldn't be altogether surprising. That would indicate Jordan believes in what the front office is doing after losing Chris Paul and trading Blake Griffin.

Of course, if some other team walks up with a multi-year offer starting at the max of $35 million and the Clippers are offering something closer to $25 million, Jordan may just walk regardless of what he thinks of L.A.'s future. There's a whole lot of bread at stake.

(Can't wait to see whether the Mavericks get involved in Jordan's free agency.)

7. Chris Paul

Paul could have become a free agent in 2018, but delayed his market entrance a year to orchestrate a trade to the Rockets. That move has gone swimmingly so far, with the Rockets on top of the league at the All-Star break. Houston is 29-3 when CP3 and James Harden both play.

However Paul will be 33 at the beginning of next season, and he has a lengthy history of nagging injuries. We don't know how Houston's 2018 playoffs run will go; whether the Rockets flame out or push the Warriors (or maybe even beat the Warriors and Raptors to win the title!) could factor in whether the Rockets are willing to give Paul a max contract. CP3, like Durant and Jordan, may be willing to accept a smaller number.

It's not clear that any other team is positioned to make a max offer to him given his age and the league's plethora of good point guard, although the prospect of CP3 being LeBron's No. 2 superstar looms.

8. Clint Capela

Houston has another free agent to worry about, though. Capela will be a restricted free agent, which means the Rockets front office can let his camp go find a max offer. Even with relatively few teams owning that level of cap space, that would probably happen.

Capela has been extraordinary for the Rockets. He might be the second most indispensable Rocket behind James Harden, given his fit with the team's four-out style and his exceptional pick-and-roll play.

Capela is essentially what Jordan was six years ago. You keep players like that, even if you spend through the nose to do it.

What's interesting about CP3, Capela, and the rumors of Houston looking to add another high-end player in free agency is that this will be the first summer with Tilman Ferttita writing the checks. He bought the franchise for more than $2 billion. If he is willing to dip into the luxury tax immediately because he believes the Rockets have a shot at a title, he may very well take it. That could benefit Capela.

9. Aaron Gordon

Our last entry is the flummoxing centerpiece of the horrendous Orlando Magic. Gordon added a three-point shot this season, hitting just under 35 percent from deep on just under six attempts per game. If that's real and if teams believe they can sharpen his range further and mold him like clay, they could believe there's a potential Paul George in there. That's reason enough to max him, even if it's a risk.

There's also uncertainty as to whether Orlando wants to pay $100 million over four years to have him as the Magic's best player. The front office has been turned over to Jeff Weltman (who worked under Toronto's Masai Ujiri), and other than the fact that he is out on Elfrid Payton (who was traded for a second-round pick at the deadline) we don't really know what he thinks of his roster.

Gordon is one of those attainable restricted free agents who should draw at least one max offer sheet, as opposed to those attainable restricted free agents who are just risky enough to scare off teams.

Others Receiving Consideration

Jabari Parker, Isaiah Thomas In The Alternate Timeline In Which The Last Two Months Never Happened, Zach LaVine, Carmelo Anthony If LeBron Decides The Most Important Thing Is Ensuring The Banana Boat Boyz Eat.

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