Posted February 12, 2018 at 05:30 AM | Updated February 12, 2018 at 05:31 AM
LeBron James
Duane Burleson
By Zack Rosenblatt | For NJ Advance Media
Las Vegas released its odds for where LeBron James ends up by Game 1 of the 2018-19 season.
Of course, in order to become a free agent and sign with who he chooses, James would have to decline a $35.6 million player option to stay with the Cavaliers another year. As part of that, the Cavaliers could always agree to a sign-and-trade to receive compensation for James' departure and allow him to go to a team that can't afford to sign him outright.
The reality is, most of the contenders can't actually afford him right now without blowing up their roster. If that's the case, does James really want to go to a team devoid of ancillary talent?
Of note, James also reportedly intends to sign a max contract wherever he signs, which would come with a starting salary of about $35.3 million.
Anyway, here's a look at the 10 most likely destinations for James next season, according to Bovada, with a look at why (and why not) each team might be able to pull off signing the league's best player. This includes the Sixers.
Houston Rockets v Cleveland Cavaliers
Jason Miller
Houston Rockets
Odds: 5/2
Why it makes sense: Rockets guard James Harden might be the only other player with a case for "best in the NBA." He's amazing. Plus, James has yet to play with best friend Chris Paul, and relocating to Houston would likely allow him to do that. Rockets GM Daryl Morey is as adept at maneuvering around the cap as any executive in the league. If anyone can work their way out of a sticky cap situation, it's him.
Why it doesn't: The salary cap issue might be an insurmountable one, unless Morey can (somehow) convince someone to eat the remaining two years, $41.7 million on Ryan Anderson's contract without taking much (or any) salary back. Right now, with Anderson, the Rockets are on the hook for $101 million in salary for 2018-19, or $20 million under the cap, with Chris Paul (unrestricted), Trevor Ariza (unrestricted) and Clint Capela (restricted) all due to become free agents. Those three come with combined $57.7 million cap holds.
Even in the best case scenario that Morey is able to convince someone to take on Anderson's contract, the Rockets would still need Paul (an unrestricted free agent with a $39.1M cap hold) to take a massive pay cut, renounce Ariza and possibly even look into trading Eric Gordon, set to earn $13.5 million next season.
NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Winslow Townson
Cleveland Cavaliers
Odds: 11/4
Why it makes sense: A week or two ago, James seemed like a near lock to leave. The Cavaliers were in turmoil with one of the league's worst defenses. Then, the Cavaliers conducted a complete trade deadline overhaul, swapping Isaiah Thomas, Dwayne Wade, Channing Frye, Iman Shumpert and Derrick Rose for a younger core of George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance. In their first game together, the Cavaliers beat the Celtics and look at that picture of how much fun James had. The odds might be tilting back in Cleveland's favor ...
Why it doesn't: Part of the trade included the Cavaliers taking back a couple large multi-year contracts (Hill, Clarkson) with Hood due for restricted free agency, on top of the albatross contracts of Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith currently on the roster. Outside of Hill, the rest of those players are young, but the Cavaliers also don't have any cap space to sign any free agents other than for the veteran's minimum. Including James' player option, the Cavaliers are on track to be $35 million over the cap.
NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers
David Richard
Los Angeles Lakers
Odds: 5/1
Why it makes sense: One of the Cavaliers' deadline deals sent the expiring contracts of Isaiah Thomas and Channing Frye to Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance, both under contract for next season. It saved the Lakers enough money to sign two max free agents. In other words — the Cavaliers might have helped push James toward the Lakers. Of course, James also owns two homes in Los Angeles and they've long been rumored to be his desired destination.
Why it doesn't: The Lakers, with all that cap space, don't have a roster built to compete with the Warriors. In all likelihood, James would have no interest in dealing with the Lavar Ball drama that comes with Lonzo Ball, so he might have to be traded. He might haul decent value, but on the surface that leaves the Lakers with a roster of Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Luol Deng and Josh Hart, plus if they choose to re-sign Julius Randle or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, which is unlikely. If James wants to win now, this isn't the right choice.
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