With Thursday's NBA trade deadline looming, one of the most intriguing, reportedly available players on the market is the Denver Nuggets' Emmanuel Mudiay. Some people have already determined him a bust, or at least a pretty big disappointment, after he was taken No. 7 overall in 2015 only to be clearly, and rightfully, supplanted by Jamal Murray. Others -- like the Western Conference scout who told me Mudiay would be his pick as a guy who could, under the right circumstances, become the next Chauncey Billups -- still love his upside at 21 years old. The situation represents maybe the toughest question an NBA general manager has to ask himself, particularly around this time of year.
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When is it too soon to move on from a young player?
And when have you held on too long?
"We're in the business of projecting, and the younger the players are, the harder that is to do," an Eastern Conference scout told CBS Sports. "It's an inexact science. So many factors come into play. It's not always going to work out."
Look back over the years, and you'll find myriad examples of teams moving on too early from a player that evolved into a star. Phoenix, and Sacramento for that matter, had Isaiah Thomas. Kris Dunn looks like an entirely different player in Chicago than the one he was as a rookie under Tom Thibodeau in Minnesota. In 2016, Orlando felt pretty good about trading Victor Oladipo for Serge Ibaka. Maybe in Orlando, Oladipo never would've become the player he's become in Indiana, but the Magic never found out.
Memphis, you might remember, drafted Kyle Lowry back in 2006, then got rid of him after two seasons. Houston had him for four seasons after that, then traded him to Toronto for a future first-round pick. Lowry was a bricklayer back then, 28 percent or worse from three in five of his first six seasons. Now he's an All-Star making $100 million on a legit Finals contender.
It just took time. And patience.
"But nobody has patience anymore," the WC scout said. "In today's NBA, patience can be a game-to-game, or even a quarter-to-quarter thing. That's tough, because these guys are coming into the league so young now."
As it happens, that first-round pick Houston got for Lowry is the same asking price the Celtics are putting out there for Marcus Smart, who perhaps best embodies these myriad factors that play into these dicey decisions to either cut bait from, or remain patient with, young players. For starters, it's a matter of positional depth, which the Celtics have plenty of with Kyrie Irving and the ever-emerging Terry Rozier, as well as the perimeter versatility of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. This makes Smart expendable, even though he has clear value to the team.
Also, Smart will be a free agent this summer, and he could feasibly command a pretty high dollar from the right suitor. The Celtics conceding that they likely can't afford to keep Smart beyond this season doesn't exactly equate to them giving up on him, but at the same time, they've clearly accepted his ceiling as something closer to the super role player he currently is rather than the All-Star-level player they'd hoped they were getting when they took him No. 6 overall in 2014.
Fact is, Smart is only in his third season at 23 years old (Lowry was in his fifth season when his three-point shooting jumped from 27 percent to 37 percent), and indeed, Smart is a consistent jump shot away from becoming that All-Star player. If he becomes that. his summer price tag notwithstanding, Boston would likely regret giving him up for a mid-first-round pick at best, which would have little chance to producing a player even close to the equivalent of a 3-point-competent Marcus Smart. Interestingly enough, the New York Times' Marc Stein recently reported that one of the teams interested in acquiring Smart is the Nuggets, who would, presumably, include Mudiay in a deal like that.
A bunch of teams have tough decisions to make on a lot of "could go either way" young players -- not just at this year's deadline, but moving into next season as well. What will the Magic do with Elfrid Payton, who could either be seen as a starting point guard on a bad team or the guy who has, at times, shown flashes of elite upside, particularly when his team plays with pace? Would a team trade for him at this year's deadline knowing it has that looming decision to make on re-signing him this summer for potentially pretty big money?
What about Miami and Justise Winslow, another guy who has, for the most part, failed to live up to the expectations he came in with after being selected No. 10 overall in 2015. Since he's returned from injury this season, his 3-point shot has looked suddenly promising, and his defense continues to have elite upside. The Heat could use him as a trade chip given his still rookie-scale salary, but if they do that and he suddenly blossoms elsewhere, they're going to regret that move.
What about the Lakers and Julius Randle? The Bulls and Zach LaVine? The Bucks and Jabari Parker? In varying capacities, these are all guys with debatable value relative to their current teams. Again, do we evaluate these players for what they are, or what they could still become? When is it too soon to move on from a young player, and when have you waited too long?
"It's one of the toughest part of the job, that's for sure," one Eastern Conference exec said.
Indeed, you can ask these questions, but it will likely be years down the road before you get your answer.
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