It's the most wonderful time of the year.
For Mike Mayock, and for draftniks. Starting Friday at 9 a.m., NFL Network will show about 36 hours of live on-field combine coverage over four days from Indianapolis. ESPN will be on the air from Indy for big chunks of the weekend too.
I caught up with Mayock over the weekend as he took a break from tape study. He educated poor, pitiful me as I played catchup on the college names and the 2018 draft. I'm probably not the only one who has never seen a snap of Leighton Vander Esch, so step into the combine classroom. Professor Mayock is at the podium.
The quarterbacks are real, and they're spectacular. Sort of. Was it just me, or did it seem like there were four or five franchise-type quarterbacks headed for the draft last summer … and now every one of them is covered with zits? "I think it's more media hype than anything," Mayock said. "During the season, everybody is going crazy about Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold and the Heisman winner, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson, and that's before the scouts and the teams and the analysts like myself and Daniel Jeremiah and Mel Kiper, before we all start to set up shop and talk critically about these kids. The season brings things back to earth a little bit, I still think there is some excitement about this class and I still think there are some franchise quarterbacks involved, but I also think it has been tempered somewhat by the availability of NFL free agents that typically aren't out there."
The best players in the draft will not surprise you. "I think the two best players I have seen on tape are [Penn State running back] Saquon Barkley and [Notre Dame guard] Quenton Nelson."
I might have some reticence about taking a running back in the top five, not to mention a guard. But not Mayock. "I think when you look around the NFL today and see that there are more and more high level interior pass rushers than there were five years ago, you know have to be strong across the offensive front. Every top-level quarterback I've ever talked to told me that what they hate the most is immediate pressure up the middle. If they can step up into a pocket, they're all happy. And that's what [Nelson] is. He is a son of a bitch who is going to knock people down in the run game. I call him a people mover. He opens holes. For 330 pounds, his feet are pretty good. I think he can plug-and-play there for the next 10 or 12 years."
In the 18 drafts this century, only three guards have been picked in the top 10: Brandon Scherff (Washington, 2015, number 5) and the seventh and 10th picks in 2013: Jonathan Cooper (Arizona) and Chance Warmack (Tennessee). Scherff's a star. Cooper and Warmack have been major disappointments.
"So recent history would say no," Mayock said, "but I would look at who this kid is, not just on tape, but who the kid is. He loves football, lives football, and because of his work ethic, toughness, and natural ability, unless he has an injury, I think this kid is going to be special."
Mayock on Barkley: "My philosophy towards high-level running backs is if you believe the kid is a top 10 running back, and you are willing to commit to that, to the philosophy of carries and touches, draft him. And I think recent history tells you that is correct. Zeke Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, those are four guys and all four of them have made their teams better. However, as you get down to the second, third and fourth rounds, man, there is a lot of really good backs, especially when they can catch the football. Tarik Cohen, fifth-round pick. Alvin Kamara, I gave him to Green Bay in my mock draft. I thought he was a first-round pick. I still don't understand why he wasn't. I think Sony Michel from Georgia compares favorably to him in the run game. I don't know if he catches the ball as naturally and I know he doesn't run as good routes, so combine and pro day are going to be really important for Sony Michel."
Receiver is a thin position this year, and recent classes have been terrible in the first round. Prompted by Mayock, let's look at the receivers in the first round of last three drafts:
• 2015: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett.
• 2016: Corey Coleman, Will Fuller IV, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell.
• 2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross.
Wow. Is that awful. One of 13 has played like a first-rounder. Amari Cooper. One!
"I think there is some trends emerging," Mayock said. "It's a pass-first league. Who were the best rookie wide receivers last year? JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp, taken at 62 and 69 [overall]. If you look back since '14, at all the first-round receivers, there is a history of injury problems—guys who can't answer the bell and most of them had that history in college that we didn't pay attention to. All three of the ones last year—Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross—had durability concerns coming into last year's draft. And I'm not saying they can't become great players, because it typically takes a couple years at that position. I'm just saying, hey, beware of a history of injury at that position. Take a look at drafthistory.com and go back and look at those four or five draft classes.
"Number two: It takes a long time for these wideouts to develop. They are not used to quality press coverage and they are not used to the complexity of NFL defenses. Nelson Agholor was supposed to be a bust but he got moved inside in year three and finally contributed to a degree. I look at this and say what do we learn from this and apply to this year's draft class. I want to figure out Courtland Sutton, the big kid from SMU. It looks to me like the bigger guys without any injury issues have been able to contribute quickly. Go back and take a look and see if it holds out. I think [Alabama's] Calvin Ridley and [Texas A&M's] Christian Kirk are really good route runners. It will be interesting to see what they run. You can't bang the table for any one guy that is going to come out and catch 60 balls next year. What are we going to see at the combine? I'm intrigued by that."
Edge rusher is thin too, which boosts the stock of the premier guy, Bradley Chubb of N.C. State. Good stat from Mayock: Last year, NFL teams picked 17 rushers in the first three rounds, which is about six more per draft than in recent years. "Myles Garrett, Derek Barnett and T.J. Watt all had really good years, and Tak McKinley, Charles Harris, Trey Hendrickson and Carl Lawson from Cincy … all pretty impressive. So who is going to affect the pass game day one? I think there are three of them. Bradley Chubb is not as twitchy as a Von Miller or some of those guys, but he does everything at a high level—stops the run, rushes the QB, great hustle, tough kid, great size. Marcus Davenport from Texas-San Antonio is really intriguing and I'm anxious to compare his numbers at the combine to Ziggy Ansah and Jadeveon Clowney to see how he matches up athletically to those two. And then Arden Key from LSU is another one of those. Gifted, but he has off-the-field concerns … hurt his knee, had a back issue. Who is Arden Key?"
Get to know Leighton Vander Esch. Asked Mayock if there's a guy he's smitten with after weeks of tape study. "The Boise linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch," he answered right away. "I haven't watched much of him. I have only seen two tapes so far; that's the caveat. But I could make the argument that his tape against Oregon [in the Las Vegas Bowl] was as good an off-the-ball-linebacker tape as I've seen in five years. Key for him at the combine: Over/under 4.65 in the 40. I am anxious to see what he runs."
After Barkley and Nelson, the best player could be Alabama cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick. "He is the only guy I could tell you that could start at all six positions in an NFL defensive backfield. Both corners, both safeties, the nickel and the dime. He's fast enough to play anywhere. Nick Saban played him at a lot of his nickel and dime linebacker stuff. So he was tough enough to tackle, he's fast enough to play corner, the NFL is a matchup league. I envision him as a chess piece for a smart coach that can move him around."
The offensive line continues to be thin, which is a big problem for coaches seeing their quarterbacks getting knocked around. Mayock's stat of the combine: Last year, only 33 offensive lineman got picked in seven rounds, and that's the lowest total going back to at least 1967. "I think a lot of that is the effects of the spread offenses in college football," he said. "There is more security with offensive linemen that are coming out of pro style offenses. What does that mean for this draft? It means the two Notre Dame kids are solid gold, Quenton Nelson and [tackle] Mike McGlinchey, it means the center from Iowa [James Daniels], it means the center from Ohio State [Billy Price] and probably the guard from Georgia [Isaiah Wynn] are all solid gold because they stuck their hand in the dirt, they had to move people in the run game and they understand a little bit of pass protection."
Please, please, please do not think opinions are final 60 days before the draft. That's how far away from the first round we are. Mayock: "Last year at this time, DeShone Kizer was my top-rated quarterback." Things changed. By the time the draft rolled around, Mayock didn't even mock Kizer in his three-QB first round.
Other pre-combine media notes:
• My guests on The MMQB Podcast With Peter King this week are Mayock and ESPN's Todd McShay. The podcast drops early Wednesday morning. Strongly recommended for some fervent opinions (on Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield most notably).
• NFL Network will have 52 hours of live coverage from Indianapolis, starting Wednesday. The four days of coverage of on-field stuff commences at 9 a.m. ET Friday and runs through Monday. Friday workouts will be running backs, offensive linemen and kickers; quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends go Sat
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