In the next two weeks a slew of veteran players will be hitting the NFL's free agent or trade market. A purge of contracts and cap space will begin, albeit likely to a lesser degree that in years past now that the cap itself continues to soar.
With the combine in Indianapolis now less than two weeks away, teams are finalizing their offseason plans and preparing to meet with agents to discuss the future of their clients. By now, in most front offices, the executives have already conducted a full review of every other roster in the league to determine players they believe will be cut, asked to take a pay cut, or who will be shopped ahead of the start of the league year. It's an inexact science, to be sure, but one that signals that the 2018 offseason is, basically, about to launch.
I went through the payroll, depth chart and cap situations with two executives trying to hash out what's likely to come for every organization in the NFL, comparing notes and theories about the state of these teams and where they are likely going. Obviously, some teams have more work to do than others, and there are difficult decisions looming for a wide swath of the league in February that will set the stage for March.
Here's a thumbnail on each NFL franchise gleaned from my conversations this week:
Arizona
The Cardinals have to find a quarterback, and the hunch I get is that its far more likely they go for a bridge guy like Sam Bradford than a mega-deal with Kirk Cousins. I expect them to draft one high as well. A David Johnson extension will be on the front burner, and they have until March 14 to make a determination on Tyrann Mathieu; his $11 million in combined salary and roster bonus becomes guaranteed then. The execs I spoke to believed the Cardinals would pay that but seek to get Deone Bucannon off the $9 million fifth-year option and on a longer-term deal at a lower cap number.
Atlanta
There is little secret here -- quarterback Matt Ryan, a former NFL MVP, is entering the final year of his deal, and signing him to an extension is paramount. With Drew Brees and Cousins in line for free-agent deals and Aaron Rodgers in line for an extension, the price of doing business with Ryan continues to soar. Getting Jake Matthews off a fifth-year option and on a less cumbersome deal would also make sense.
Baltimore
Ownership has made it clear drafting a quarterback in the first round isn't on the table, but 2018 is likely Joe Flacco's last season with this team given the structure of his contract. (I'd target Tom Savage for that role; abundant upside, played well against the Ravens this year, and they've signed Texans backups before). Finding skill players on offense is the priority, in draft and free agency, and before that happens I expect the Ravens, ever tight against the cap, to purge some of the elders they brought in a year ago in free agency (Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead) to clear some cap room. They've always been remiss to pay big for free agent receivers, but exploring a trade for Emmanuel Sanders would make sense. Can they get anything for Breshad Perriman in trade? Extending C.J. Mosley is the only real in-house business to take care of, another sign of their recent draft struggles.
Buffalo
Bills GM Brandon Beane isn't even a year on the job yet, but already established himself as a wheeler-dealer willing to listen to anything. He was open to moving tackle Cordy Glenn in-season and will definitely consider that option this offseason as well; he's done well moving on from big-ticket items left over from the previous regime. Sources said the Bills will also seek a trade partner for Tyrod Taylor -- Denver is one team that leaps to mind -- but teams may simply wait until March to sign him, knowing the Bills are highly unlikely to pick up his $6 million roster bonus on the March 16. They are loaded with picks and looking diligently at the first-round quarterbacks in this draft.
Carolina
This is literally a team in limbo without a general manager for now -- they should have given Marty Hurney an extension when Ron Rivera got his weeks ago -- and with an interim owner, with Jerry Richardson under NFL investigation and the team up for sale. In other words, don't expect a whole lot of activity from them. Maybe they get an extension done with a high-character veteran like Greg Olsen. Finding legit outside receivers will be the primary objective to open up the offense.
Chicago
Go ahead and swallow that $19 million you gave Mike Glennon to start about one month for you. League sources said that quarterback will be gone. His a symbol of a brutal 2017 free-agent class. "Their free agent class from a year ago was a joke," one personnel exec said. "You can count on pretty much all of those guys being out of there this year." Indeed, the team got next to nothing out of Glennon, Mark Sanchez, Markus Wheaton, Prince Amukamura, Kendall Wright et al. a year ago). Pernell McPhee's injury woes have other teams believing the Bears might save that $7 million by moving on from him, and Willie Young is another who could be gone. Re-signing corner Kyle Fuller should be a priority but he's going to find a lucrative market ahead and will not be returning to Chicago, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.
Cincinnati
Will this be the final year for Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap with the Bengals? They have been the heart of that defensive front for a long time, but both enter the final year of their deal. Michael Johnson has not produced in his second stint with the team the way he did in his first, and they could save $4.5 million by letting him go. Adam Jones has been a favorite of ownership and highly productive into his 30s, but with a $5.3 million option looming on March 14, do they move on? My guess is he's back with the Bengals for another season.
Cleveland
It's all about finding a quarterback, finally, for this franchise, and it will focus on the first-overall pick in the draft. Securing a veteran to run the offense to start the 2018 season makes sense as well (a Josh McCown type would be perfect), and moving DeShone Kizer out of there might be the best step, too. Extending Duke Johnson should be a no-brainer given the $100 million or so in cap room they have. But coming off an 0-16 season, there aren't a ton of extensions in order and the Browns will be active in free agency. (Personally, I'd part ways with Josh Gordon as well given all of the drama and baggage there.)
Dallas
The sense I got around the league is that Jerry Jones will not release Dez Bryant ("He'll get him to restructure that contract," one personnel director told me. "Jerry has a way of getting those things done.") The Cowboys don't have oodles of cap room, however, and need to franchise DeMarcus Lawrence and then try to extend him, while David Irving is an RFA and Zach Martin is the next offensive lineman in line for a massive new deal. The Cowboys' focus will be from within.
Denver
A year from now, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are likely to be gone, and rival execs would not be surprised at all if one of them is dealt in the coming weeks. Aqib Talib is gone. Paxton Lynch could be gone once the Broncos solve their quarterback conundrum. I'd put my money more on a younger bridge guy like Taylor or AJ McCarron than I would them landing Cousins in the end. Sign a guy making half of what Cousins will make, and draft a quarterback in the first round (again).
Detroit
Executives I talk to believe the Lions have to roll the dice and tag Ziggy Ansah, injury concerns and all. "He has a chance to set the market on that side of the ball in free agency if they let him hit the market," one exec said. Tight end Eric Ebron has been the subject of trade rumors before and likely will be again. Significant focus will be paid to getting a feature back and adding talent to the defense for rookie head coach Matt Patricia.
Green Bay
It's time to extend Rodgers again, and while you could make the case for the Packers moving on from either receiver Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb, I wouldn't bet on it. "Rodgers is back healthy, he got the GM in the seat that he wanted, and he loves both of those receivers," said one exec with ties to that organization. "He'll make it clear he doesn't want to lose them. I don't think they're going anywhere." Clay Matthews isn't the player he once was and they could save over $10 million in cash and cap by letting him go, but I don't anticipate that happening, either. They need to upgrade on defense, obviously.
Houston
Brian Cushing is very likely to be gone, saving about $8 million in the process. As much money as possible needs to be funneled to Jadeveon Clowney, who is entering the final year of his deal at a time when longtime defensive anchors J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus are both trying to come back from major injuries. Watt's long-term health has to be a concern, which makes extending Clowney Objective No. 1 (and 2 and 3) for the Texans.
Indianapolis
They've been open to listening to trade suggestions on tackle Anthony Castonzo in the past, and some in the league believe the right side is where he should be. Buttressing the offensive line in hopes of Andrew Luck's return is as much a need as is sprinkling talent at all positions on defense With around $80 million in cap space, the Colts will be players in free agency, and much of that money could be sunk into the offensive and defensive lines.
Jacksonville
I wouldn't rule out, at all, them sniffing around on guys like Cousins, but in the end I believe it's more likely they land a top dollar backup like Josh McCown than add a new uber-expensive starter. I expect Blake Bortles to be back. The Jags must decide by next week whether to pick up a $4 million option on tight end Marcedes Lewis -- "I'd be surprised if they don't given how he's been there and his ability to block and help in the run game," one exec said -- though the exec does anticipate the Jags release running back C
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