There's something about this NBA season that makes it feel formless. Maybe it's the stretched out schedule that resulted in the league having played almost three quarters of its games before the All-Star break. Perhaps it's the feeling of inevitability that surrounds LeBron James in the East and the Warriors out West.
Or perhaps, it's just a weird season. We get these from time to time. As we head down the home stretch here are the storylines that may finally provide some shape and structure to what has been a season without definition.
We should prepare for a world in which the Raptors and Rockets are the top seeded teams in the playoffs. With just over 20 games remaining on their respective schedules, Houston sits mere percentage points ahead of the Warriors in the West. The Rockets are in the midst of a road-heavy stretch of games, but the schedule eases off in late March. If they can survive the next few weeks, they can pull it off.
As for the Raps … look guys, it's now or never. Even with their new additions, the Cavs have shown us that they still can't be trusted on the defensive end. The Celtics are a year away. The Wizards are the Wizards. There will never be a better time to sneak into the Finals out of the East and the Raptors are legitimately good.
That said, absolutely no one trusts either one of them in the playoffs. The Rockets have two superstars, an offense for the ages, and a top-10 defense (barely.) The Raps are deep and less reliant on DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry than past versions. They are also the only team in the league with a top-4 offense and defense.
Both teams carry the hallmarks of legit championship contenders. Yet, both are defined by their tortured pasts of postseason failures.
Chris Paul has never made it out of the second round. Mike D'Antoni has never coached in the Finals. James Harden reached the Finals with the Thunder, but never as a leading man. The less said about Toronto's playoff history, the better.
There's not a damn thing either Houston or Toronto can do between now and April to convince anyone otherwise. Earning the top seed would be a nice start, though.
Golden State is bored. Cleveland is still finding itself. That's a major difference, obviously. Still, barring a series of calamitous injuries, the Warriors and Cavs are the teams to beat in the postseason.
I'll continue to believe that until someone figures out a way to win four games against them.
The rest of the playoff picture is incredibly cloudy. A mere two and-a-half games separate Cleveland from the third seed and the seventh. It's even tighter out West where the difference between hosting a first-round series and falling into the lottery is just three games.
The stakes are incredibly high for a number of teams. Portland, Denver, New Orleans, and Minnesota must make the playoffs. No one seriously thinks San Antonio or Oklahoma City will be left out, but the Clippers and Jazz are charging hard. Two of those teams will make it to the semifinals and there will be much soul-searching among those left out of the postseason.
The order is just as skewed in the East where the 76ers have a legit shot at securing home-court advantage in the first round. The Sixers are becoming the team no one wants to face in the first round. Imagine that.
In the interim, we're all waiting on injured players to return. What will the Wizards look like when John Wall is able to play again? They've held it down admirably in his absence. How about the Nuggets with Paul Millsap, or the Cavs with Kevin Love? Both teams miss their power forwards.
If Jimmy Butler can walk, you know he'll give it a run for the Wolves. Kawhi Leonard, maybe? Somewhere, Danny Ainge is getting ready to tweet a photo of Gordon Hayward.
Injuries are the great equalizer in postseason basketball. Until these teams are whole, we won't know what to make of them.
The MVP race is still James Harden's to lose. This goes hand-in-hand with the Rockets' pursuit of the best overall record. If they continue to grind through what's left of the season and Harden continues to pile up numbers, there will be few challengers for the award that has long eluded his grasp.
Even if the Rockets choose to strategically rest their star down the stretch, it's going to be difficult to dislodge Harden from his perch. You can make arguments for Steph Curry or Kevin Durant, but they tend to cancel each other out. LeBron James is an obvious alternative, but the Cavs' campaign has done him no favors. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis will also receive down ballot consideration.
Like everything else this season, the MVP race lacks the dynamic wide-open appeal of last year's chase. Harden has earned his comfortable position, however. He's in the final stages of producing his masterpiece of efficiency and the only thing that can derail him is injury.
I can't bring myself to care about tanking. A third of the teams in the league are already out of contention and they're just as bunched together as the playoff hopefuls. There will be much absurdity and hand-wringing as teams jockey to improve their lottery odds and draft position.
And then it will be over and no one will really care when the playoffs start.
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