Denver Nuggets (+30000)
Paul Millsap's return could vault the Nuggets into a more flattering category by season's end. Pull Will Barton from the starting lineup for him, and they have an opening five that has fared like a top-five team on both offense and defense through its first 14 appearances.
But Millsap isn't slated to rejoin the rotation until March, by which point the Nuggets won't have the grace period necessary to establish themselves as a dark-horse contender. They'll be fortunate if they're humming on offense, let alone defense, once the playoffs tip off.
Indiana Pacers (+30000)
Losing Darren Collison for a minute has not upended the Pacers' sneakiness. They still field a top-six offense, and the version of the starting lineup that includes Cory Joseph is blitzing rivals by close to 17 points per 100 possessions.
Feel free to pencil in the Pacers for a postseason appearance. They deserve it. But they have to convert too many tough shots, and their half-court defense and presence on the glass aren't polished enough to float much more than a first-round fly-by.
Philadelphia 76ers (+10000)
Well, this hurts.
The Sixers have the NBA's best defense since Christmas. Ben Simmons is finding ways to captain effective lineups that don't include a Joel Embiid safety net. With the league's easiest schedule in front of them, per PlayoffStatus.com, the Sixers are within reach of home-court advantage through the first round.
If a general dearth of spacing and shot creation outside the starting lineup didn't remain a glaring downfall, even after the addition of Marco Belinelli, we might be able to talk ourselves into the Sixers as quasi-contenders.
Portland Trail Blazers (+30000)
Will the Blazers' conservative defensive scheme hold up in the playoffs? Does head coach Terry Stotts have the nerve to glue Jusuf Nurkic to the bench when Ed Davis and Zach Collins are showing out as the superior frontcourt complements?
Can Portland turn the Moda Center back into a distinct home-court advantage? Are there enough wings to fill out an effective playoff rotation? Will their recent offensive uptick ever not come at the expense of their returns on the less glamorous end?
The uncertainty surrounding the Blazers is overwhelming. It'll take a micro miracle—or best-of-seven set with the Minnesota Timberwolves or San Antonio Spurs—for them to squeak past the first round.
Utah Jazz (+30000)
The Jazz turned on the jets prior to their All-Star respite. Although they're fighting back from a lottery position, they've essentially claimed a spot among automatic playoff entrants. They have their 11-game win streak to thank, along with a cupcake stretch run.
Golden State is the only other playoff team in the West with an easier schedule from here, according to PlayoffStatus.com, and 14 of Utah's final 24 games come at home. Rudy Gobert once again anchors a league-best defense when he's on the floor, while the emergence of Royce O'Neale and a more aggressive Joe Ingles has enabled the offense to manufacture offense even when Donovan Mitchell goes cold.
But the playoffs are a different beast. The Jazz will have no problem gumming up half-court works of their enemies. They're still built to play slow. The more physical, the better. But the methods of shot creation change on offense, and even with a scorching-hot Derrick Favors and Ricky Rubio, they're not yet equipped to conjure the highest-quality looks in merciless playoff settings.
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