MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 3 - RSL Soapbox

Dallas News finally broke with their routine of doing rankings by conference instead of league, so they have been added. 14 sites published for Week 3.

First a reminder of what Power Rankings should be (not that every site does of course...):

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I've not included please send me their link!

Sites Used

• Jeff Sagarin's MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
• Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
• Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)
• ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
• Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
• MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
• MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
• Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
• The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
• Philly Soccer Page (phillysoccerpage.net/category/seba-projections/)
• MLS Fix (youtube.com/channel/UCOIovJpP95VaFCvsmdhm8ZA)
• The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
• MLS Multiplex (mlsmultiplex.com)
• Once A Metro (onceametro.com) - No ranking wk 2-3
• Dallas News (sportsday.dallasnews.com/tag/soccer)

You may notice the list includes several 'analytic' sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by 'team' blogs'. There are also included sites that some will argue are really 'prediction rankings' - but in reality isn't that what a Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

2018 Weekly MLS Power Ranking Averages

1	2	3	Team	W1 avg	W2 avg	W3 avg	Best	Worst	St. Dev	2018	6Y Avg
1	2	3	Team	W1 avg	W2 avg	W3 avg	Best	Worst	St. Dev	2018	6Y Avg
7	6	3	Atlanta United	8.9	5.7	3.667	2	7	1.58	6.089	8.94
11	13	18	Chicago Fire	11.1	13.3	16.333	11	20	3.12	13.578	13.69
22	23	23	Colorado Rapids	21.3	22.2	22.167	19	23	1.3	21.889	13.88
2	2	2	Columbus Crew	2.6	2.6	2.833	1	6	1.44	2.678	10.45
19	22	21	D.C. United	18.2	20	20.25	17	23	1.58	19.483	12.9
17	15	12	FC Dallas	15.9	16.3	12.25	9	18	2.98	14.817	8.01
4	9	9	Houston Dynamo	4.9	8	8.917	4	15	3.62	7.272	10.59
9	5	5	Los Angeles FC	10.1	5.4	5.167	1	15	3.78	6.889	9.77
13	13	13	Los Angeles Galaxy	11.9	13.3	14.667	9	22	4.12	13.289	8.01
23	17	15	Minnesota United	21.9	17	14.917	10	22	3.2	17.939	12.53
20	19	17	Montreal Impact	18.6	17.8	15.25	10	19	2.44	17.783	13.08
21	16	19	N.E. Revolution	19.5	16.6	17.917	13	22	2.85	18.006	13.6
1	1	1	New York City FC	2.1	2.2	1.583	1	4	0.99	1.961	8.61
5	4	6	New York RB	7.7	4.3	5.5	3	12	2.19	5.833	7.02
18	21	22	Orlando City SC	16.2	19.3	21.667	19	23	1.5	19.056	12.63
10	11	11	Philadelphia Union	10.5	11.4	11.833	7	20	3.27	11.244	13.11
14	20	20	Portland Timbers	12.1	18	18.583	7	23	4.58	16.228	10.87
12	17	13	Real Salt Lake	11.3	17	14.667	8	20	3.57	14.322	9.03
15	12	15	San Jose Earthquakes	12.8	12.9	14.917	8	21	3.76	13.539	11.43
6	8	10	Seattle Sounders	7.8	7.8	10.5	4	18	4.47	8.7	7.67
16	10	7	Sporting Kansas City	15.4	11	7.333	3	11	2.43	11.244	6.5
3	3	4	Toronto FC	4.2	3.6	4.667	1	17	4.2	4.156	9.41
8	7	8	Vancouver Whitecaps	9.1	7	8.833	6	17	3.12	8.311	9.56

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Weekly Site Accuracy

Site	# Exact	1 Off	2 Off	3 Off	4 Off	5+ Off
Site	# Exact	1 Off	2 Off	3 Off	4 Off	5+ Off
Jeff Sagarin	2	8	3	3	1	6
FiveThirtyEight	1	8	3	3	3	5
Massey	4	7	3	3	3	3
ESPN	8	7	4	1	3	0
Soccer America	2	8	7	0	1	5
MLS Soccer	6	8	5	2	1	1
MLS Fantasy Boss	4	6	5	4	2	2
Reddit /r/mls	6	7	4	3	1	2
The Mane Land	3	6	0	8	2	4
Philly Soc Page	4	7	0	6	3	3
MLS Fix	6	6	3	3	2	3
The Score	6	5	5	2	2	3
MLS Multiplex	7	3	8	1	2	2
Once A Metro	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Dallas News	3	7	5	1	2	5

• Most Accurate for the week: ESPN with 8 exact matches.
• Least Accurate for the week: Jeff Sagarin with 6 off by 5+.

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Site Bias

This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.

2017 Power Ranking Site Bias

Site	ATL	CHI	COL	CLB	DCU	FCD	HOU	LAFC	LAG	MUFC	MTL	NER	NYFC	NYRB	ORL	PHI	POR	RSL	SJE	SEA	SKC	TOR	VAN	Site
Site	ATL	CHI	COL	CLB	DCU	FCD	HOU	LAFC	LAG	MUFC	MTL	NER	NYFC	NYRB	ORL	PHI	POR	RSL	SJE	SEA	SKC	TOR	VAN	Site
Jeff Sagarin	-0.419	-3.248	-1.219	-1.678	1.517	-0.817	-2.602	10.058	5.711	0.731	-4.783	-3.006	0.709	-0.833	2.274	-1.914	-4.228	4.008	4.131	0.63	-0.914	-1.826	-0.981	Jeff Sagarin
FiveThirtyEight	-3.419	0.752	-2.559	4.652	0.187	-2.147	4.398	2.058	-1.619	4.391	-1.113	-0.006	1.709	-0.833	3.274	-1.244	-9.898	-0.652	7.791	-6.03	-2.914	-3.156	7.689	FiveThirtyEight
Massey	0.581	2.752	0.111	-0.678	0.847	-1.147	4.058	-6.272	3.041	-0.609	-1.783	-2.676	1.039	-1.163	3.274	-1.574	-0.898	-3.992	6.131	-1.37	1.426	0.844	-0.641	Massey
ESPN	-2.759	-1.248	1.111	-0.348	-0.813	3.183	-1.272	2.058	-1.289	-1.269	2.217	-0.676	-0.961	0.497	1.944	2.426	0.772	1.348	-3.869	-1.37	0.086	0.514	1.019	ESPN
Soccer America	3.241	-0.248	1.111	-1.678	-0.813	1.183	-3.272	-3.272	-2.959	-2.939	1.547	-1.006	0.369	-0.833	-1.726	-3.914	2.102	0.008	-2.869	7.97	0.756	10.174	-1.641	Soccer America
MLS Soccer	-0.089	3.752	0.441	0.652	0.517	1.513	1.398	0.398	-4.289	1.061	1.547	3.994	-0.961	-1.503	-4.726	3.426	-0.898	-4.322	-0.209	-0.03	-0.244	-2.156	2.019	MLS Soccer
MLS Fantasy Boss	-1.089	1.422	-0.889	0.322	3.517	-3.817	1.728	0.228	6.211	2.061	-0.283	-2.506	-0.461	-0.833	1.944	0.256	-4.728	-1.322	4.461	-3.2	1.256	-2.656	-0.311	MLS Fantasy Boss
Reddit /r/mls	1.911	2.752	0.781	-1.348	-1.153	-0.487	-1.602	-2.602	-5.289	-0.269	1.547	2.324	-0.291	0.497	-3.386	-0.574	3.772	1.348	-4.869	5.3	1.756	3.514	-2.311	Reddit /r/mls
The Mane Land	3.911	-2.908	0.781	0.322	0.187	-3.817	-2.272	3.398	-3.619	2.731	-1.453	3.664	-0.961	0.837	-3.726	5.086	-0.898	2.008	0.791	-1.7	-5.914	-1.826	6.689	The Mane Land
Philly Soc. Page	-1.759	0.752	-4.559	2.652	-0.813	1.513	4.398	-4.942	8.041	0.061	-1.453	-3.676	1.369	1.837	3.944	-2.574	2.442	-6.652	2.131	-0.37	3.426	-2.156	-2.311	Philly Soc. Page
MLS Fix	-2.089	-1.908	0.111	-0.348	-2.483	3.853	-2.602	3.398	-1.289	-1.269	2.547	2.994	-0.961	5.497	-0.056	-0.244	4.102	0.008	-6.209	-0.03	-0.574	0.174	-1.311	MLS Fix
The Score	-4.089	-2.078	1.111	1.322	0.517	4.183	1.728	-0.272	1.211	-3.939	-0.783	-2.006	-0.961	-0.333	0.944	2.256	2.272	6.678	-0.539	-0.7	-4.744	0.844	-1.311	The Score
MLS Multiplex	0.411	1.422	1.111	-0.178	2.017	-4.317	0.728	-6.272	4.711	-3.939	0.717	-0.506	1.039	-2.333	-0.556	0.256	5.272	2.178	-2.539	3.3	-1.244	2.844	-2.811	MLS Multiplex
Once A Metro	12.911	7.422	-0.889	-1.678	-7.483	-3.817	-5.272	-3.272	-6.289	-1.939	-2.783	1.994	1.039	15.167	-10.056	-3.244	-3.228	-4.322	-8.539	5.3	6.756	12.844	-2.311	Once A Metro
Dallas News	0.911	-2.578	-0.889	1.322	2.517	-2.817	2.728	-1.272	1.711	-0.939	-4.783	0.994	-0.961	-2.833	3.944	8.756	-2.228	3.678	2.461	-3.7	-3.244	-2.156	0.689	Dallas News
Avg. for Season	7.3	12.2	21.75	2.6	19.1	16.1	6.45	6.45	12.6	19.45	18.2	18.05	2.15	6	17.75	10.95	15.05	14.15	12.85	7.8	13.2	3.9	8.05	Avg. for Season

• Most season bias For: Once A Metro with Orlando City 10.06 better than average, however they haven't been active for 2 weeks. From 'active' lists FiveThirtyEight has Portland Timbers 9.898 better than average.
• Most season bias Against: Once A Metro with New York Red Bulls 15.167 worse than average, but again they're inactive. From 'active' lists Soccer America has Toronto FC 10.174 worse than average.
• Least season bias For: Five Thirty Eight with New England Revolution 0.006 better than average.
• Least Season Bias Against: Soccer America and MLS Fix with Real Salt Lake 0.008 worse than average.

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Site Averages

Team / Site	AVG	Jeff Sagarin	Five-Thirty-Eight	Massey	ESPN	Soc. Amer	MLS	MLS Fant. Boss	Reddit /r/mls	Mane Land	Philly Soc. Page	MLS Fix	The Score	MLS Multiplex	Once A Metro	Dallas News	AVG
Team / Site	AVG	Jeff Sagarin	Five-Thirty-Eight	Massey	ESPN	Soc. Amer	MLS	MLS Fant. Boss	Reddit /r/mls	Mane Land	Philly Soc. Page	MLS Fix	The Score	MLS Multiplex	Once A Metro	Dallas News	AVG
Atlanta United	6.089	5.67	2.67	6.67	3.33	9.33	6	5	8	10	4.33	4	2	6.5	19	7	6.089
Chicago Fire	13.578	10.33	14.33	16.33	12.33	13.33	17.33	15	16.33	10.67	14.33	11.67	11.5	15	21	11	13.578
Colorado Rapids	21.889	20.67	19.33	22	23	23	22.33	21	22.67	22.67	17.33	22	23	23	21	21	21.889
Columbus Crew	2.678	1	7.33	2	2.33	1	3.33	3	1.33	3	5.33	2.33	4	2.5	1	4	2.678
D.C. United	19.483	21	19.67	20.33	18.67	18.67	20	23	18.33	19.67	18.67	17	20	21.5	12	22	19.483
FC Dallas	14.817	14	12.67	13.67	18	16	16.33	11	14.33	11	16.33	18.67	19	10.5	11	12	14.817
Houston Dynamo	7.272	4.67	11.67	11.33	6	4	8.67	9	5.67	5	11.67	4.67	9	8	2	10	7.272
Los Angeles FC	6.889	17.33	9.33	1	9.33	4	7.67	7.5	4.67	10.67	2.33	10.67	7	1	4	6	6.889
L.A. Galaxy	13.289	19	11.67	16.33	12	10.33	9	19.5	8	9.67	21.33	12	14.5	18	7	15	13.289
Minnesota United	17.939	18.67	22.33	17.33	16.67	15	19	20	17.67	20.67	18	16.67	14	14	16	17	17.939
Montreal Impact	17.783	13	16.67	16	20	19.33	19.33	17.5	19.33	16.33	16.33	20.33	17	18.5	15	13	17.783
N.E. Revolution	18.006	15	18	15.33	17.33	17	22	15.5	20.33	21.67	14.33	21	16	17.5	20	19	18.006
New York FC	1.961	2.67	3.67	3	1	2.33	1	1.5	1.67	1	3.33	1	1	3	3	1	1.961
New York RB	5.833	5	5	4.67	6.33	5	4.33	5	6.33	6.67	7.67	11.33	5.5	3.5	21	3	5.833
Orlando SC	19.056	21.33	22.33	22.33	21	17.33	14.33	21	15.67	15.33	23	19	20	18.5	9	23	19.056
Philadelphia Union	11.244	9.33	10	9.67	13.67	7.33	14.67	11.5	10.67	16.33	8.67	11	13.5	11.5	8	20	11.244
Portland Timbers	16.228	12	6.33	15.33	17	18.33	15.33	11.5	20	15.33	18.67	20.33	18.5	21.5	13	14	16.228
Real Salt Lake	14.322	18.33	13.67	10.33	15.67	14.33	10	13	15.67	16.33	7.67	14.33	21	16.5	10	18	14.322
San Jose Earthquakes	13.539	17.67	21.33	19.67	9.67	10.67	13.33	18	8.67	14.33	15.67	7.33	13	11	5	16	13.539
Seattle Sounders	8.7	9.33	2.67	7.33	7.33	16.67	8.67	5.5	14	7	8.33	8.67	8	12	14	5	8.7
Sporting Kansas City	11.244	10.33	8.33	12.67	11.33	12	11	12.5	13	5.33	14.67	10.67	6.5	10	18	8	11.244
Toronto FC	4.156	2.33	1	5	4.67	14.33	2	1.5	7.67	2.33	2	4.33	5	7	17	2	4.156
Vancouver Whitecaps	8.311	7.33	16	7.67	9.33	6.67	10.33	8	6	15	6	7	7	5.5	6	9	8.311

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Weighted Season Average 2012-2017

The '7 year average' is the season ending average with each preceding year's value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).

7 Year Weighted Average

Team/Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Wt Avg
Team/Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Wt Avg
Atlanta United	3.6	4.5	5.4	7	8	5.814	6.089	5.77
Chicago Fire	3.164	7.175	9.324	12.397	15.04	7.155	13.578	9.69
Colorado Rapids	5.14	4.94	6.924	12.166	4.2	16.515	21.889	10.25
Columbus Crew	4.68	6.405	5.76	6.125	13.048	10.143	2.678	6.98
D.C. United	2.98	8.62	4.494	4.137	11.128	16.911	19.483	9.68
FC Dallas	5.152	4.29	3.81	3.248	2.184	5.463	14.817	5.57
Houston Dynamo	2.7	3.855	7.662	9.667	13.152	8.424	7.272	7.53
Los Angeles FC	3.88	4.8385	5.8008	7.35	8.4	10.323	6.889	6.78
L.A. Galaxy	3.356	2.575	3.138	3.157	3	14.166	13.289	6.1
Minnesota United	3.6	4.5	5.4	7	8	17.739	17.939	9.17
Montreal Impact	5.596	2.585	10.524	10.542	6.016	13.032	17.783	9.44
N.E. Revolution	5.912	6.26	5.796	6.65	12.36	13.761	18.006	9.82
New York City FC	3.88	4.8385	5.8008	10.829	7.536	3.96	1.961	5.54
New York RB	2.232	3.26	6.03	3.276	6.488	7.515	5.833	4.95
Orlando City SC	3.

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