In this exciting new NFL world in which trades are seemingly a part of everyday life, mock drafts feel even more out of touch with what's about to happen at the 2018 draft. Most mocks don't account for possible trades up or down, yet only 17 of the 32 picks in the first round of last year's draft were spent by the team who originally owned a given selection. Who would've expected that the Chiefs would beat the Cardinals to the punch for Patrick Mahomes?
Every year, I produce a mock that heads all the way in the opposite direction. Instead of a draft with no picks traded, this is the mock in which each and every first-round pick gets swapped. No selection is left behind. The goal is to try to create a trade for each pick that makes sense for two (or more) parties given their respective histories and present needs. I'm not saying I would suggest any teams should actually execute these trades, but if there's a team like the Dolphins with a track record of trading up and have a need at a key position, it makes sense to build a trade in which they do so.
When: April 26-28
Where: Arlington, Texas
NFL draft coverage » | Full order: 1-256 »
•
•
•
•
• How '18 QBs grade vs. first-rounders »
• Kiper's Big Board » | McShay's Top 32 »
• Teams with most, least draft capital »
•
•
• Most memorable draft moments ever »
One important note: Each trade is independent of all the other ones. The 32 trades take place in 32 different universes where a different set of players are still available. I've notated picks in the 2018 draft with their round and overall spot on the board, so 2-35 indicates the 35th overall pick, which is in the second round. I've also limited myself to only involving a given player in a swap once during this entire exercise, so for example, there's only one trade featuring Odell Beckham Jr.
The trade values for these swaps were calculated using the Jimmy Johnson chart, which most teams in the league still use as the primary measure of a draft pick's value. More analytically inclined teams are likely to use something closer to the Chase Stuart chart. For me, the Johnson chart measures perceived value, while the Stuart chart measures actual value.
Last year, this started with a ridiculous three-way trade that would have seen the Browns trade down from the top spot and acquire Jimmy Garoppolo from New England, with the Patriots getting Myles Garrett and Josh Gordon and the Saints nabbing Malcolm Butler. Honestly, it might have worked out better for the Browns and Patriots than the actual decisions they later made at quarterback. Let's start this exercise by constructing a similarly insane proposal.
Skip to Nos.: 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30
Browns get: QB Andrew Luck; 1-6; 2019 fourth-round pick
Colts get: 1-1; 1-4; 2-35; 2019 first-round pick
It's very, very difficult to construct a trade for the first overall pick this year, given that the Browns desperately need a quarterback and have the top pick in a passer-heavy class. Any trade the Browns could make would need to solve their quarterback problem, and unlike last year with Garoppolo, there isn't a potential franchise signal-caller floating around as a backup. You're looking at quarterbacks like Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott as possible trade targets, and those moves don't make much sense for the teams on the other side.
The only exception that comes to mind is Indianapolis, where Luck missed all of last season with a shoulder injury that originally wasn't expected to cost him any game time in 2017. Trade acquisition Jacoby Brissett played surprisingly well in Luck's absence, and while Brissett wasn't as good as the Stanford passer, he did enough to hold the fort for a fraction of Luck's cost. The people who drafted Luck are out of the building, and while I suspect the current Colts regime thinks Luck is still their man, maybe the team can be blown away by an offer -- especially if there's a rookie quarterback it loves in this year's draft.
So let's get former Chiefs executives Chris Ballard and John Dorsey to team up on a truly earth-shattering swap. The Browns have to make a massive bet on a quarterback, so in lieu of one of the passers in this class, Cleveland moves all-in for the best passing prospect of this past generation (albeit without knowing whether he left his shoulder on the operating table). Obviously this trade would require Luck to take an exhaustive physical in Cleveland, but even that might not be enough to assure the Browns that Luck will be healthy enough for them to make this trade.
If Luck's medicals -- or the tape of him carrying the Colts earlier in his career -- are enough to convince Dorsey, the Browns give up a haul. They would send the first overall pick to Indy, while moving down two slots from the fourth pick. The Colts also would get Houston's second-round pick (No. 35) as well as Cleveland's 2019 first-rounder, which would be more likely to fall toward the middle of the pack given the presence of Luck and Tyrod Taylor, who would still have a role as a bridge quarterback.
This deal gives the Colts a chance to hit the reset button under Ballard and stock up with three premium picks, including the first overall selection. If they guess right at quarterback, they suddenly have a franchise signal-caller making a fraction of Luck's $25 million-per-year deal and a bunch of high draft picks to play around him. They also get to retain Brissett, who leaves them with some stability as they develop that new quarterback. If Brissett continues to play well, he would become a valuable trade asset entering the final year of his deal in 2019.
Cleveland might very well prefer to draft and develop a rookie quarterback, and the concerns about Luck's shoulder might make it too difficult to justify dealing multiple first-round picks in the process. At the same time, though, Luck is a 28-year-old phenom who might be worth six wins per year on his own given what we've seen from the Colts with him out of the lineup. Is it safer to bet on Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen than it is to bet on Luck?
This deal obviously isn't going to happen. The Colts just traded out of the third overall pick, suggesting that they don't see a once-in-a-generation quarterback sitting there (although they might view things differently without Luck in the mix), and the Browns already traded for Taylor under the clear assumption that they'll draft a quarterback. This is a reflection on how unlikely the offer would have to be for the Browns to move the first overall pick after years of trading down and failing on the field to be in place to make this selection.
Giants get: 1-12; 1-22; 2-56; 2019 second-round pick; DE Shaq Lawson
Bills get: 1-2
Another pair of former co-workers team up here. Bills general manager Brandon Beane recently worked under Giants GM Dave Gettleman during their time in Carolina, and in fact, if Beane hadn't left last offseason to go to Buffalo, he likely would be in charge of football operations for the Panthers right now. Beane has been stockpiling picks to presumably go after a quarterback in the draft, but with the Jets moving up to No. 3 , his only way to get ahead of Gang Green is to make a deal with their crosstown rivals.
The decision to trade Jason Pierre-Paul was curious for the Giants, given that it seemingly opens a spot in the lineup for star edge-rusher Bradley Chubb at second overall. Gettleman has suggested that he believes Eli Manning can play at a competitive level for several more seasons, so while it's unlikely the Giants will find themselves in a better spot to draft Manning's replacement, they might be comfortable rolling with their 37-year-old starter and upgrading the team around him.
They can do that by drafting Chubb or Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson at No. 2, but after years of disastrous drafts under Jerry Reese, the Giants have more than one hole to fill. If they want to roll with Eli, trading down would give them the ability to draft multiple offensive linemen with a shot of making an impact on this year's roster. This deal also would let them take a flier on Lawson, a solid run defender who hasn't been healthy or effective as an edge rusher after being drafted in the first round by Doug Whaley in 2016. Then they could make another move depending on what happens at the top of the draft. If they're interested in Nelson or a quarterback like Baker Mayfield, maybe they use some of these picks to trade up with the Colts and move from 12 to six.
Buffalo has no shot of moving to the top spot, but this is the next best thing. Beane has to give up both of his first-round picks and a second-rounder this year and next, but the Bills would still have at least one pick in each round of this year's draft. Buffalo can draft its quarterback of the future without having to entirely mortgage that future in the process.
Jets get: 1-2; 4-108; 2019 second-round pick; conditional 2019 fourth-round pick
Giants get: 1-3; 3-72; 2019 first-round pick
The Jets reportedly didn't bother to call the Giants when they were trying to trade up into the top three, a move that seems criminally incurious from Mike Maccagnan. What was the worst thing that could have happened? Was Gettleman going to laugh him off the phone then brag to all the other general managers about what a dweeb Maccagnan was? If the Jets know that the Giants are taking a quarterback with the second pick, does their trade up solely to beat the Bills to the third-best passer in this class make a lot of sense?
I would suggest that the Jets call the Giants this time around, but the problem is that Maccagnan isn't just negotiating to move up one spot, which wouldn't cost all that much on the draft chart. He has to beat
0 Response to "Barnwell's 2018 All-Trades Mock Draft - ESPN"
Post a Comment