Last season, no NBA head coach was fired for the first time in 46 years. That unprecedented stability carried over into the summer, as no teams changed coaches in the offseason.
This combination created a spectacularly shocking reality: every team began the 2017-18 season with the same head coach who led them to begin the 2016-17 season. In a league where the average tenure is three years and where we've seen recent years with double-digit turnover, this was completely unexpected.
Don't get used to it. The dam looks like it's going to break over the next few weeks.
As it is, three coaches were fired during the 2017-18 season: Earl Watson by the Suns, David Fizdale by the Grizzlies, and Jason Kidd by the Bucks. While their interim replacements may be candidates this summer for the permanent job, it'd be wise to expect fully open recruitments. The Suns, in fact, have already begun their search. The Grizzlies will soon do the same, if they aren't quietly already reaching out to candidates. The Bucks have at least one playoff series to get through before that search begins.
There are likely to be other openings, as well, especially given how awful so many teams have been.
Among the worst teams in the league, one would not expect the Magic's Frank Vogel to feel terribly secure. While Vogel is completing just the second year of his four-year, $22 million deal, Orlando has a new front office led by Jeff Weltman. Vogel has been ineffective in turning the clay of questionable quality given to him into anything like a winning team, as Scott Skiles and Jacque Vaughn were before him. The Magic have actually regressed under Vogel, dropping from 35 wins in Skiles' only season to 29 last year and 23 this season with five games to go. But with eight figures still owed to Vogel, that's a big gulp for the Magic to take.
Atlanta's Mike Budenholzer and Sacramento's Dave Joerger are likely safe because expectations are so low in the wake of rebuilding decisions made by their respective front offices and, in the Hawks' case, the star free agents who left. We could, of course, be surprised.
Brooklyn's Kenny Atkinson is almost assuredly safe; consider him the new Brett Brown, being paid to suck up these losses while the franchise inches slowly toward the light at the end of the tunnel. We could, of course, be surprised.
The Mavericks' Rick Carlisle isn't going anywhere. We already mentioned the Grizzlies and Suns, who will be on the market.
That leaves us with the two quasi-atrocious teams in the East: the Bulls and Knicks.
Chicago has invested plenty in Fred Hoiberg, and due to various circumstances — including Hoiberg's inability to truly connect with Jimmy Butler — that hasn't worked out wonderfully for the Bulls. They could cut bait this summer or continue an abrupt rebuilding process for another year or two under Hoiberg. Jeff Hornacek, meanwhile, is two years into a more modest three-year deal with New York. Like Orlando, the Knicks now have a front office that didn't hire the coach. That's always a recipe for a switch. We'll see.
Among the other non-playoff teams, there's a lot of mystery. Luke Walton isn't going anywhere. Stan Van Gundy isn't going to fire himself, but, boy, does he look miserable pretty often. Could he get out of Detroit, either under his own power or due to decree from on high?
The Hornets' Steve Clifford is incredibly well-respected and has a relationship with likely new general manager Mitch Kupchak, having worked together with the Lakers. But it's time to rebuild in Charlotte, probably, and the Hornets have been disappointing in two consecutive years.
Playoff teams don't often fire their coaches, though we know at least one playoff team will have a coaching search (Milwaukee).
Two teams in the Western race are going to miss out on the postseason, and that could spell doom for their coaches. It's widely accepted, though not confirmed, that Denver's Michael Malone needs to make the playoffs or his tenure will end. The Nuggets are one game out, as of Wednesday morning.
The Clippers' Doc Rivers had his front office powers stemmed last summer. He's done an admirable job bringing this injury-riddled team into playoff contention, but the question with Rivers is more whether his personal vision for the next twist in his career lines up with what the new Clippers' braintrust wants to do with the team. They could very well decide to part ways mutually.
New Orleans' Alvin Gentry has been on the hot seat for almost two years. The Pelicans have been brilliant in surviving DeMarcus Cousins' injury as long as they have, and Gentry will likely get some Coach of the Year votes if New Orleans makes the playoffs. (And perhaps even if they don't.) But finishing No. 9 could spell the end for him, especially if there is turnover in the front office, which is quite possible.
Oklahoma City's Billy Donovan makes a ton of money in a small market, and it appears Russell Westbrook and Paul George like him, so there's no smoke there unless something changes. No other Western playoff coaches should have any fear of being let go.
The same is true in the East. Toronto's Dwane Casey — on the hot seat last year primarily because of disappointing playoff performance from the Raptors — is a top contender for Coach of the Year. If the Raptors completely tank out of the playoffs, maybe something happens. (But they won't, so it won't.)
Washington's Scott Brooks might be a whispered name if the Wizards weren't dedicated to stability. He'll be fine.
No one else in the East playoffs should have fear. Half of them are Coach of the Year candidates. Brett Brown probably deserves a Nobel Prize — or better, a bonus — for putting up with The Process long enough to reap its fruit.
After all that, we have three definite openings and eight maybes. If the majority of those maybes turn into action, that's a huge chunk of the league to turn over in one summer, especially after a year and change of stability.
It's never good to see anyone lose their job, but it's a fact of life in pro sports. The fantastic compensation soothes the sting in most cases. All those top-flight assistants, former head coaches, and ex-players ought to brush up their resumés, because the NBA coaching carousel is back.
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