The first round of the NBA playoffs hasn't concluded, but already head coaching vacancies have materialized in New York, Orlando, Charlotte and Phoenix, with decisions on interim coaches to be made in Milwaukee and Memphis (sources suggest the Grizzlies are quite fond of J.B. Bickerstaff, who may stick around long-term), in addition to other spots where upheaval may or may not occur (Detroit, Atlanta, LA Clippers).
The pool of coaching talent might be more impressive than ever, but so are the position's degree of difficulty and the expectations that come with it. The Milwaukee Bucks' job, should the team move on from interim head coach Joe Prunty, is an encapsulation of all the allure and potential landmines of the present-day job of NBA head coach.
The Bucks' upside is tantalizing, with Giannis Antetokounmpo prime to become one of the most dominant players in basketball over the next decade. Yet the ownership situation in Milwaukee is a complicated one, with the governorship changing hands in 2019. The Bucks have built a strong infrastructure -- new facility, staff, better systems, a top-flight performance program and a new arena set to open in the fall -- yet it's an organization that has been beset by palace intrigue in recent years.
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So, the success and failure of their head coach next season won't be determined by how much strong-side pressure the Bucks exert on D, or whether Giannis is best utilized as a 5-man in a continuity offense. The responsibilities are far more holistic -- placating owners, earning a superstar's trust, maintaining good diplomatic relationships with a young front office, and getting everyone on the roster to accept their roles.
Over the course of the season, we spoke to nearly three dozen executives, coaches and current and former players to get a sense of what the job is in 2018, and those who might do it well. A number of prominent themes surfaced:
• Context is everything. Not every head coaching job in the NBA carries the same job description, and before a franchise makes its selection, it has to consider where the team resides in its life cycle. A team undergoing a full rebuild might want a teacher who has the patience to adopt the long view (see Atkinson, Kenny). A team tacked with egos on the verge of contention will need someone who can manage those personalities.
A team in flux (e.g. Charlotte, Orlando) requires flexibility and a willingness to change course on the fly. In the Bucks' case, they want to win now, but still need to be schooled on habits, schemes and the ways of winning.
That said ...
• You're a CEO, not a coach. Whether you're in Milwaukee, New York or anywhere else, there have never been more constituencies to manage, egos to massage and information to synthesize.
Forget the fact that a coach has to earn the trust of 15 world-class athletes. There's also an owner who may be bleeding money and has decided the coach is in large part to blame, the folks on the business side who want him to make a public appearance while there's still five hours of film to watch, a staff of assistants who need a jolt of morale, and a highly paid sports scientist who thinks he has been mismanaging the workload of the one productive player who can get him out of his current mess.
And that's Monday.
• Worry about the player, not the playbook. We observed in Memphis how a highly regarded coach can run afoul of management if he locks horns with a well-tenured franchise player. Whatever side one takes of the Fizdale-Gasol impasse, the outcome sent a strong signal to the league: Head coaches are expendable in a way top players aren't.
• "Fake hustle" is retrograde. Work ethic, preparation and a willingness to perform the humdrum tasks of the job are vital, but any head coach who can't get out of the training facility by 6:30 p.m. on a non-game day may be putting on airs. Welcome to the era of work-life balance, where "not having a life outside basketball" is more a detriment than a curse, a demonstration that a coach might lack a native curiosity of the greater world that can actually help him do his job, relate to his players and colleagues and generally be a pleasant person to be around. The season is far too long and concentrated to approach the job otherwise in a league where "playing with joy" is the new imperative.
As teams with openings survey the coaching talent pool, they'll recognize a few sub-species among the candidates. We've been performing this exercise since 2013 (in which five of the seven names on that list were subsequently hired as head coaches). Our 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 lists included Quin Snyder, Kenny Atkinson and Tyronn Lue. Here are some names that have been cited by some -- or many -- as head coaching material.
The list, while comprehensive, is not complete. The pool is deep, with coaches now cutting their teeth internationally, in the G-League, as well as the more traditional routes such as on the assistant bench. Plenty of other names are certain to emerge.
The employed and the restless
What happens when a prestige coach who signs up to lead a team to contention finds himself staring at a rebuild? Such is the case for the Atlanta Hawks' Mike Budenholzer, regarded as one of the league's top tacticians and culture-builders among players and execs. Though Budenholzer has taken himself out of the running for the Phoenix Suns' opening, that won't deter other teams from inquiring about his availability and interest. If Atlanta and Budenholzer parted ways, owner Tony Ressler and general manager Travis Schlenk would lose an elite coach, but would have an opportunity to hand-pick a coach that conforms to their vision and who would most likely come at great savings.
In Los Angeles, Clippers coach Doc Rivers will be entering the final year of his deal, a moment when a franchise and coach generally conduct substantive discussion about the future, though it has been quiet between the Clippers and Rivers. Like Budenholzer, Rivers was both relieved of his duties last year as the organization's chief basketball operations exec and is looking at a team in rapid flux. Rivers acquitted himself well in this capacity this past season, but a high level of transition might not appeal to him long term.
The big names
A franchise seeking to make a splash with fans and players will often turn to a prestige name, though such candidates are few and far between in the league at this moment in time.
Over the past several years, teams looking to fill a vacancy have frequently reached out to ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy, who coached the U.S. national team in the AmeriCup last year and previously coached the Houston Rockets and New York Knicks, to gauge his interest in returning to the coaching ranks.
Jerry Stackhouse, featured in this space last year, has coached the Toronto Raptors' G-League team to consecutive finals appearances, winning the title last season. A fierce competitor, Stackhouse puts a premium on game prep, and has become quite the film maven. Many insiders regard Stackhouse as the most likely candidate in the field this year to get a first-time job.
Both ESPN analyst Mark Jackson and Turner analyst Kevin McHale are eager to get back into the coaching ranks. Jackson has reportedly been contacted by the Knicks for their opening, while McHale is on the Suns' list of potential candidates.
Meanwhile, when we've asked executives over the past five years to identify a name from the NCAA ranks most likely to succeed in the NBA, Villanova's Jay Wright is a distant first choice -- that's before the Wildcats cut down the net a few weeks ago. Wright is a consummate communicator who has gotten more out of less, and is sure to wow an owner.
The retreads
"Retread" carries a negative connotation, but there's something to be said for learning from experience. Witness Terry Stotts with the Portland Trail Blazers, who didn't win in his previous two spots but has evolved into one of the steadier head coaches in the NBA. Dwane Casey was run out of town by the Minnesota Timberwolves prematurely a decade ago, but has flourished in Toronto. Nate McMillan was thought to be a practitioner of snail's-pace, old-school basketball, but no coach overachieved with his roster this season more than the 13-year NBA coaching veteran in Indiana.
Accordingly, Dave Fizdale took his lumps with the Memphis Grizzlies and learned how hard it is to institute a culture. But popular opinion around the league -- particularly among current and former players -- says he's still a coach who can develop, relate and inspire, and one who has learned from his mistakes.
Likewise, Monty Williams, Steve Clifford and Frank Vogel are similarly regarded as capable NBA head coaches with the requisite experience to succeed if they landed in situations more favorable than their previous ones.
Mike Brown, who is second chair to Steve Kerr with the Golden State Warriors, is looking to get back in the game. Has the light-hearted vibe in Oakland loosened up a self-identified obsessive-compulsive and made him more conducive to present-day conditions in the NBA?
There's a consensus around the league that Jason Kidd will get consideration for the Phoenix opening.
The assistant class (the young guns)
Toronto assistant Nick Nurse (whom we featured in 2016) came in as the leading vote-getter in our informal survey as most likely to succeed as a first-timer. Any team looking to install a coach who will
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