Thunder vs. Heat odds: NBA picks, predictions from expert who's 9-2 on Miami games - CBSSports.com

With the NBA postseason just a week away, teams are frantically trying to improve their playoff chances. That includes the Heat and the visiting Thunder, who tip off Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Every game is crucial for the Thunder, who lead the ninth-place Nuggets by only one game in the Western Conference. The Heat have already punched their postseason ticket, but want to improve on their current spot of sixth in the East.

The line opened as a pick 'em and now the Thunder are laying 2.5. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has climbed four points from an opening of 210.5 to 214.5.

Before picking either side to what will surely be a fast-paced contest, you need to read what SportsLine hoops expert Larry Hartstein, who's nailed nine of his past 11 Heat picks, has to say. 

Last Wednesday, Hartstein made a confident pick on Heat-Hawks, noting how Miami was a phenomenal 37-18 against the spread in its previous 55 road games. Hartstein didn't hesitate to back 8-point road favorite Miami. The result: the same Heat team crushed Atlanta 115-86, allowing him to cover with more than 20 points to spare.

Part of his success: Hartstein has a vast network of Vegas sources and has been covering the industry as a sportswriter and analyst for two decades. He can spot a bad line from a mile away.

Now, he has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Thunder-Heat and locked in his pick. We can tell you he's expecting a low-scoring affair and is leaning towards the Under, but what about the spread, which he's made his name picking?

Hartstein knows that If Miami expects to win -- or at least stay within the spread -- it must play better perimeter defense. In its last game against New York, reserves Damyean Dotson and Luke Kornet poured in 47 points.

The Heat yielded a staggering 18 3-pointers in that game. Against the Thunder, who have even more lethal deep-range shooters than the Knicks, weak defense by guards Dwyane Wade and Tyler Johnson could be catastrophic.

The trio of Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George get most of the credit for Oklahoma City's success, but the unsung hero is center Steven Adams, who's always swooping into the lane and hammering home errant shots.

The Thunder could cover on Monday if Adams maintains his double-double average over the past five games. His ability to block out Hassan Whiteside on the boards could be the key to an OKC win. 

Hartstein has identified a key trend that causes one side of the spread to hit. He's sharing what it is, and who to back, at SportsLine.

So what side of Oklahoma City-Miami do you need to be all over on Monday? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick by Hartstein, who's on an impressive 9-2 stretch picking Heat games, to find out.

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