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Some of the free agents your favorite team signed in March will become busts, as will some of the players drafted in April. But because nobody can predict who will boom and who will bust, the glass often feels half-full this time of year.
The problem with that is offseason improvements don't mean much if all 32 NFL teams feel they're getting better. Every team has made changes this offseason, but not all changes will prove positive.
How does the NFL field look after a wild March? Let's take a moment to rank all 32 teams.
The aforementioned fan dynamics this time of year indicate most of you won't be happy with what you're about to read, in which case you're welcome to believe this is an April Fools' joke.
(It isn't.)
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The Cleveland Browns are undoubtedly getting better. Can't really get worse than they were the last two years, and it's hard not to improve when you've got that much money to spend and that much draft capital.
New quarterback Tyrod Taylor gives them a better chance to win than any of the quarterbacks who were on the 2017 roster, March additions Jarvis Landry, Chris Hubbard, E.J. Gaines, Terrance Mitchell, T.J. Carrie, Chris Smith and Damarious Randall give them some much-needed talent and experience, and now they'll have the opportunity to add a handful of starting-caliber players with five picks in the first two rounds of the draft.
Still, this is a team that won zero games last year and lost stalwart left tackle Joe Thomas to retirement. Unless all or most of those picks start and excel right away and their three 2017 first-round picks break out, the Browns will remain at least a year away from being considered a real pro football team.
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A healthy Ryan Tannehill probably isn't enough to fix what ailed the Miami Dolphins in 2017, and the Dolphins appear as though they're aware of that. Why else would they part ways with their best offensive player (wide receiver Jarvis Landry) and their best defensive player (Ndamukong Suh) in the same month?
The Dolphins are a lot worse with Tannehill and without Landry and Suh than without Tannehill and with Landry and Suh, but they're not about to contend either way so it's hard to blame them for deciding to save some money in order to focus on the future.
There's been talk that the Dolphins could draft a quarterback in the first round, which would likely only hurt their projected win total for 2018. Regardless, a team that ranked in the bottom five defensively with Suh the last two years could have trouble matching their 6-10 record from 2017.
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The New York Jets will gain some credit if they use their first-round pick on Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield, but Josh Allen is too much of a project to make a positive impact in 2018.
They also gave up three second-round selections (two in 2018, one in 2019) in order to move up three spots for a player who they may have been able to land with their original pick. That means that if they don't make any more moves in the draft and 90-year-old Josh McCown does indeed start the season under center, Gang Green will have zero rookie first- or second-round picks on the field in the fall.
Not ideal for a team that is apparently rebuilding and overachieved by winning a mere five games in 2017.
Getting high-potential wide receiver Quincy Enunwa back from a neck injury will help, and free-agent additions Trumaine Johnson and Avery Williamson could make more of an impact than departed veterans Muhammad Wilkerson and Demario Davis did. But the Jets still completely lack depth on both sides of the ball and remain in search of a quarterback good enough to compensate for that.
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A Cincinnati Bengals team that is coming off back-to-back losing seasons is looking rather stale after another quiet March.
Sure, they upgraded at left tackle by trading for Cordy Glenn, but that and the addition of steady linebacker Preston Brown isn't enough. The Bengals still lack game-changing players and are putting too much on the shoulders of quarterback Andy Dalton, wide receiver A.J. Green and defensive linemen Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson.
Dalton has regressed, trouble-making linebacker Vontaze Burfict does more harm than good, the defense lacks teeth altogether and Glenn's presence won't fix a mediocre offensive line.
The Bengals have a better chance at falling to the AFC North basement than slaying the Steelers or Ravens.
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In 2017, the Seattle Seahawks were a nine-win team that ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of DVOA and weren't hit particularly hard by injuries in what was an injury-filled season across the NFL. Remove Richard Sherman, Jimmy Graham, Sheldon Richardson, Paul Richardson and Deshawn Shead from that roster and what do you get?
Trouble, even with a magician at quarterback.
In addition to lacking talent along the offensive line, in the offensive backfield and in the receiving corps, the Seahawks now lack depth on both sides of the ball. Without Wilson, they'd be a bad team. With Wilson, they're still probably kicking off a miniature rebuild.
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Do we give Andrew Luck the benefit of the doubt? It's encouraging that the rehabbing quarterback is throwing footballs again, but we learned our lesson last offseason regarding updates on Luck's health. The Colts went 4-12 without Luck in 2017, and it's just as easy to envision that happening again as it is to imagine the 28-year-old returning to Pro Bowl form in 2018.
Fact is, he hasn't been in that form since 2014, and he's missed 26 games since then. Even if he suits up Week 1, nobody knows how effective Luck will be.
The Colts can't be ranked in the bottom five so long as Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Anthony Castonzo are on the roster, but there still isn't enough talent on defense or along the offensive line and they were oddly quiet in free agency.
Even with Luck active and effective, the Colts will have trouble keeping up with everybody else in the increasingly strong AFC South.
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Trading so-so offensive tackle Cordy Glenn to the Cincinnati Bengals was a coup for the Buffalo Bills, who are better off with second-year second-round pick Dion Dawkins at left tackle and now hold the No. 12 overall pick in the draft.
If the Bills use that bolstered draft capital to obtain their next franchise quarterback, they could be better in 2018 than they were when they finally ended the longest playoff drought in football in 2017. But we can only evaluate the Bills for what they've done, and right now it's hard to feel too bullish about a team that features AJ McCarron in the top spot on the quarterback depth chart.
Despite finally getting back to the playoffs last season, the Bills ranked 21st in the NFL in terms of DVOA. That was with the departed Tyrod Taylor playing the most valuable role on the team, according to Pro Football Reference. Now Taylor, Preston Brown and E.J. Gaines are gone and they're overpaying Star Lotulelei and Trent Murphy on the defensive side of the ball.
Barring a shockingly strong 2018 season from (fill in the blank) at quarterback, the Bills look like they'll win between six and nine games for the eighth consecutive year. Call it football purgatory.
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Whether they'd like to admit it or not, the time has come for the Arizona Cardinals to rebuild.
That doesn't mean the Cards have to start from scratch without stars David Johnson, Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson, and it doesn't mean they have to commit to sucking for half a decade. Rebuilds can happen quickly in this league, but it does feel as though Arizona is in denial about its ability to contend.
Why else would you give Sam freakin' Bradford a $20 million deal? The 30-year-old has missed the majority of three of the last five seasons due to knee injuries, and Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer told NFL Network's Tom Pelissero in March that Bradford's knee condition is "degenerative."
If Bradford can stay on the field he might be an upgrade over Carson Palmer, Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton, but an aged roster got worse for the second consecutive offseason by cutting ties with Tyrann Mathieu, John Brown, Jaron Brown and Jared Veldheer.
Because they somehow went 8-8 last year, the Cardinals don't even have a premium draft pick. And that could also have them believing they can make a playoff push with a healthy Johnson in the backfield. But that's unlikely to happen because the defense and receiving corps have become too thin and Bradford doesn't stand much of a chance behind a sub-par offensive line.
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When center Ryan Jensen signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last month, the Baltimore Ravens lost a solid offensive lineman in free agency for the third time in as many years. That'll take a toll on a team that still lacks weapons and support for veteran quarterback Joe Flacco.
Of course, Flacco has his own problems. The 33-year-old has posted a sub-85 passer rating in three consecutive seasons, and he averaged an NFL-low 5.7 yards per attempt in 2017. The Ravens offense produced fewer 20-yard plays (37) than anyone else in football, and March acquisitions Michael Crabtree and John Brown won't change that.
Baltimore keeps hanging around because a strong defense led by C.J. Mosley, Eric Weddle and Terrell Suggs remains one of the best in football, but Weddle and Suggs are getting pretty old. The Ravens are probably going to get worse before they get better.
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The Detroit Lions approached free agency like a team that would be satisfied with a third consecutive 9-7 season in 2018. In with Deshawn Shead, out with D.J. Hayden. In with Devon Kennard, out with Tahir Whitehead. In with Luke Willson, out with Eric Ebron.
Meh.
In
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