The Washington Redskins finally turned the page on the Kirk Cousins era after the 2017 season, not playing games with his tag anymore and not bothering with free agency. An out-of-nowhere, surgical strike to acquire Alex Smith in a trade with the Chiefs caught everyone off guard, including Cousins, and set the course for a different team in 2018.
Surrounding Smith will be a fairly similar setup, although the Redskins may have landed a feature back in the second round of the draft when they stopped Derrius Guice's free fall. The LSU back is a mean runner, physical and violent in the manner of a Marshawn Lynch, and easily the most eye-opening back to grace the depth chart since Jay Gruden's arrival.
Gone is Terrelle Pryor, in is Paul Richardson, who got a hefty free-agent contract, to join Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed. There is a lot of talent there, but there are a lot of question marks too.
The Redskins played it safe in the first round of the draft, grabbing an Alabama defensive lineman for the second year in a row. No one is going to rip you for drafting one of Nick Saban's hog mollies in the middle of the first round.
And maybe that speaks to what the Redskins are this year -- a team with promise, yet a team that might just have a really high floor and a really low ceiling. Vegas tends to agree, because their 2018 NFL win total is set at 7 games.
Over the next several weeks, Will Brinson will have the best voices around the NFL on the Pick Six Podcast to break down the draft and win totals on a team-by-team schedule. It's a daily dose of football in your podcast app inbox by 6 a.m. to get you right for that commute, gym trip or just staring at your family over a cup of coffee. Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play
Why they'll go over
Alex Smith was an MVP candidate at the midway point of the season in 2017, right there with Tom Brady and Carson Wentz as the most productive quarterbacks in football. No one really saw it as a situation to be replicated in the second half of the season, and anyone questioning Smith's ability to sustain his production was right: The Chiefs tailed off midway through the season, although they picked things back up down the stretch. Ultimately Smith had his best year as a passer in the NFL at 33, stretching the field (8.6 yards per attempt) and throwing deep in a manner we had not seen from the former No. 1 overall pick. Did he experience a late-career breakthrough? Or was he just in bleep-it mode with Patrick Mahomes chasing him on the depth chart? We'll find out soon, because there is enough here for the Redskins to replicate a similar-enough offense. Doctson, Crowder, Reed and Richardson, coupled with Guice out of the backfield, are a nice group of skill-position players ... if everyone is healthy. Trent Williams and Morgan Moses are an excellent pair of tackles and you can pencil Brandon Scherff into a Pro Bowl if he plays 16 games at the guard position.
The defense is probably better? The rush defense fell off a cliff when Jonathan Allen got hurt after five games last year; pairing him with Da'Ron Payne on the line should make this team more stout up front at the very least. Cornerback has me a little nervous: the Redskins brought in Orlando Scandrick after letting Bashaud Breeland walk and trading Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs in the Smith deal. It's not an elite defense, but it can do some damage for Greg Manusky if the big boys up front stay healthy.
Man we've talked about health a lot, huh? At any rate, if Smith plays in between last year and his previous seasons' average, he won't be a drop-off at all from Cousins. That stability alone, coupled with a legitimate rushing attack and an above-average defense, is enough to believe the Redskins can win eight games.
Why they'll go under
Smith doesn't maintain his form from last year and struggles to adapt out of the gate to Gruden's offense. The offensive line is beset by injuries again and so is the defensive line. Guice can't find holes to run in and Chris Thompson isn't ready for the start of the season/lacks explosiveness after suffering a brutal injury late last year. Richardson is a flop of a free-agent signing and Reed can't stay on the field (his big issue), forcing Doctson to bear the brunt of WR1 duties and Crowder to get overwhelmed by coverage. The offense struggles badly. Defensively, they're bad against the run again and don't have any explosive pass rush.
A mid-October signing of Dez Bryant doesn't lead to production, it leads to Redskins-on-Redskins crime in the middle of a game as he and Josh Norman brawl at the 50-yard line of FedEx Field.
This is the worst-case scenario, but you get the point: the Redskins appear to have a lot of injury risks on their team and are betting on a 34-year old quarterback to continue his random middle-age breakout with a new team. It's a lot to ask.
Early schedule analysis
The scheduling gods were not benevolent to Washington: They draw the Cardinals (away) and Packers (home) before their Week 4 bye (ugh), which means they are all but guaranteed to see both Sam Bradford and Aaron Rodgers healthy. A Week 2 home game against the Colts is a must-win game and it's the first week of May. In the six weeks after the bye, they get an NFC South sandwich, with the Cowboys and Giants serving as the meat. First up is the Saints (road) and Panthers (home) and then the Falcons (home) and Buccaneers (road). It's the toughest division in football and Washington gets all four games in a six-week stretch. After that, they have the Texans at home and four days later play the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. At least they receive a mini-bye before playing the Eagles in Philly on Monday night of Week 13. Giants (home), Jaguars (road), Titans (road) and Eagles (home) close out a pretty rough schedule all around.
What they're saying
"Guice is going to get an opportunity to be the best running back Jay Gruden's had in Washington. They haven't had a really productive -- I like the phrase you used -- bell cow, focal point, they can build a running game around, since Alfred Morris and the early days of Robert Griffin with the Shanahans in 2012 and 2013. It's been by committee, it's been guys who get hot, they ride for a couple of games at a time. I think that changes. If Guice is who they think he is, he's going to be a starter for them week in and week out when he's healthy."
-- Grant Paulsen of 106.7 The Fan in D.C. on the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe here for much more on the Redskins from Grant)
The pick
This one is close, because that schedule really gives me pause. But I believe in the floor here and I like Alex Smith as a replacement for Kirk Cousins. If anything, the Redskins made sure, as Paulsen pointed out too, that they didn't end up in purgatory at the quarterback position, needing to draft someone early despite lacking the capital to do so. They paid a lot for Smith, but he will get them to .500 with the talent around him, assuming everyone stays healthy. That's a big if, but there's no way that the offensive line deals with as much injury attrition as it battled in 2017. Eight wins it is.
VERDICT: OVER
0 Response to "2018 NFL Over-Under Win Totals: The Redskins might be the ultimate .500 team in 2018 - CBSSports.com"
Post a Comment