Baker Mayfield answers a question during a Cleveland Browns press conference. (AP Photo) Baker Mayfield went No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft last week. Quarterbacks who are the first pick in the draft are expected to be franchise QBs – faces of franchises, leading teams to great glory, the whole package.
Overall No. 1 picks have, in theory, immense talent and potential. They also face rugged terrain, in that they almost always are going to franchises that are struggling.
What kind of future does Mayfield have? Well, that's up to him and the Browns. But let's look at the history of quarterbacks picked overall No. 1.
2016: Jared Goff, California. Going well with the Rams so far.
2015: Jameis Winston, Florida State. Been a little rocky with the Buccaneers, but overall, Winston has proven he can play to some degree.
2012: Andrew Luck, Stanford. Only injuries have kept Luck from being fantastic for the Colts. You rarely can predict injuries.
2011: Cam Newton, Auburn. Been great for the Panthers.
2010: Sam Bradford, Oklahoma. Injuries have derailed Bradford's career, which otherwise has gone OK but not spectacular.
2009: Matthew Stafford, Georgia. Been very good, if not great, for the Lions.
2007: JaMarcus Russell, LSU. A total bust for the Raiders. Possibly the worst draft pick in NFL history.
2005: Alex Smith, Utah. Was OK, nothing great, with the 49ers. Was better with Kansas City and now has moved on to Washington.
2004: Eli Manning, Ole Miss. Not too shabby, particularly if you like two Super Bowl victories over New England.
2003: Carson Palmer, Southern Cal. Solid in Cincinnati, solid in Arizona.
2002: David Carr, Fresno State. Didn't really work out, but the Texans never really protected him. That is a road to disaster.
2001: Michael Vick, Virginia Tech. All kinds of issues plagued Vick over his career, but he was transformational for Atlanta and then won big in Philadelphia.
1999: Tim Couch, Kentucky. Flamed out rather quickly but actually had a good start in Cleveland.
1998: Peyton Manning, Tennessee. Uh, seemed to work out all right.
1993: Drew Bledsoe, Washington State. Really good for a long time. Including playoffs, had 101 NFL wins. That's a lot.
1990: Jeff George, Illinois. Worlds of talent, and he made 124 NFL starts. But a journeyman. He started for five franchises. No team ever seemed pleased with him.
1989: Troy Aikman, UCLA. Three Super Bowl titles and the Cowboy quarterback the duration of the 1990s. That'll do.
1987: Vinny Testaverde, Miami. Strange career. Testaverde started for seven teams. He had almost as many interceptions (267) as touchdown passes (275), which is OK if the meat of your career is in the '60s, not the '90s. On the other hand, Testaverde played forever – 21 seasons. He won playoff games with the original Browns (1994) and the Jets (1998). As a 44-year-old quarterback on Dec. 2, 2007, Testaverde quarterbacked the Panthers to a 31-14 victory over the 49ers, completing 17 of 26 for 169 yards and two touchdowns.
1983: John Elway, Stanford. The ultimate embodiment of a Hall of Famer and franchise quarterback.
1975: Steve Bartkowski. No doubt a franchise quarterback; Bartkowski made 121 starts for the Falcons from 1975 through 1985. But was he a good franchise QB? Atlanta went 55-66 under Bartkowski, plus one playoff victory. A good quarterback. But not what the hope is for an overall No. 1.
1971: Jim Plunkett, Stanford. Unique career. Plunkett spent five years with the Patriots, then two years with the 49ers, and through seven seasons had a career record of 34-53. He was considered a massive disappointment. Then Plunkett quarterbacked both the 1980 and the 1983 Raiders to Super Bowl titles.
1970: Terry Bradshaw, Louisiana Tech. Slow start, then led Pittsburgh to four Super Bowl titles.
Before 1970, the draft was not particularly scientific. So overall No. 1 picks like Terry Baker of Oregon State (1963), Randy Duncan of Iowa (1959), King Hill of Rice (1958), George Shaw of Oregon (1955), Bobby Garrett of Stanford (1954), Bill Wade of Vanderbilt (1952) and Harry Gilmer of Alabama (1948) are not to be considered indicators of expected talent. Though Wade turned out to be a good pro.
So let's categorize the overall No. 1 pick quarterbacks.
Hall of Fame: Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw.
Potential Hall of Fame: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Eli Manning.
Not Canton, but Can-do: Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Drew Bledsoe, Jim Plunkett.
Still progressing: Jared Goff, Jameis Winston.
Solid & enduring: Vinny Testaverde, Steve Bartkowski.
Disappointing: Sam Bradford, David Carr, Tim Couch, Jeff George.
Bust: JaMarcus Russell.
That's 22 overall No. 1 pick quarterbacks, not counting Mayfield. Two others are just getting started. So out of 20, seven either made the Hall of Fame or could. That's a decent success rate. Six others were really good. That's 13 of 20. A superb percentage, really. This isn't basketball, where a great player can shine in virtually any environment. NFL quarterbacking is hard. If your team stinks, even the best of QBs can struggle. Plunkett was a good example.
Only five of the 20 could be labeled disappointing or a bust, and that includes Bradford, who still could write a stronger finish to his career and join Testaverde and Bartkowski in the solid class.
The odds favor Mayfield having, at worst, a good NFL career.
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