There are no more than seven games remaining on each NBA team's schedule, which means one thing and one thing only: Every win and loss matters, no matter where your team is seeded.
Depending on your team, a win could be the difference between home-court advantage or a road matchup against the team with the best record in the conference. On the flip side, depending on your team, a win could be the difference between 17.8 percent odds at the No. 1 pick and 8.8 percent.
Friday night hoops did the playoff picture and tank-off no favors.
Let's look at the playoff picture, first
Eastern Conference
(Seed). (Team): (Record) — (Games Behind No. 1 seed)
- Toronto Raptors: 55-20
- Boston Celtics: 52-23 — 3.0
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 46-30 — 9.5
- Philadelphia 76ers: 45-30 — 10
- Indiana Pacers: 45-31 — 10.5
- Washington Wizards: 41-34 — 14
- Miami Heat: 41-35 — 14.5
- Milwaukee Bucks: 40-35 — 15
Race to the top
The only way Toronto loses its standing at No. 1 in the East is if they lose three games at the same time the Celtics win three games. The Raptors' remaining schedule? @ BOS, @ CLE, vs. BOS, vs. IND, vs. ORL, @ DET, @ MIA.
Boston's? vs. TOR, @ MIL, @ TOR, vs. CHI, vs. ATL, @ WAS, vs. BKN
Tiebreakers
The Celtics and Raptors have also split their season series at one apiece with two games remaining on the schedule. Without Kyrie Irving (knee surgery), Marcus Smart (thumb), and Daniel Theis (torn meniscus), though, the C's might be out of luck against the rolling Raptors.
The No. 1 seed is Toronto's to lose.
Middle of the Pack
3. Cleveland — 9.5 GB
4. Philadelphia — 10
5. Indiana — 10.5
It's a toss-up at this point between Cleveland, Philly and Washington for seeds No. 3-5. Let's look at remaining schedules.
Cleveland: vs. DAL, vs. TOR, vs. WAS, @ PHI, @ NYK, vs. NYK
Philadelphia: vs. CHA, vs. BKN, @ DET, vs. CLE, vs. DAL, @ ATL, vs. MIL
Indiana: @ LAC, @ DEN, @ vs. GSW, @ TOR, @ CHA, vs. CHA,
Tiebreakers
- The Pacers lead the Cavaliers in their season series, 3-1. They also lead the 76ers in the season series, 2-1 If they finish with the same record, Indiana will come out on top
- The Cavaliers lead both the 76ers in their season series, 2-1. Philly needs to win its April 6 matchup vs. Cleveland in the event they finish with identical records
Why this is important
The No. 4-5 seed matchup is the toughest first-round series of each playoff series, and the winner of that series faces the winner of the No. 1 vs. No. 8 series, which is almost always the best team in the conference. These teams want that No. 3 seed for their playoff livelihood.
The bottom (well, not really)
6. Washington — 14 GB
7. Miami — 14.5 GB
8. Milwaukee — 14.5 GB
We're not counting Detroit here because they'd have to win their last seven games and pray seeds No. 6, 7 or 8 lose out. It's over for the Pistons. Moving right along.
It's a toss-up between seeds No. 6-8. Washington. John Wall could return from a two-month absence any day now. Miami has been one of the tougher teams to deal with, especially after trading for Dwyane Wade at the deadline. And Milwaukee is a confusing team, but with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the roster, you can never rule them out.
Here's a look at their remaining schedules:
Washington: vs. CHA, @ CHI, @ HOU, @ CLE, vs. ATL, vs. BOS, @ ORL
Miami: vs. BKN, vs. ATL, @ ATL, @ NYK, vs. OKC, vs. TOR
Milwaukee: @ DEN, vs. BOS, vs. BKN, @ NYK, vs. ORL, @ PHI
Tiebreakers
- The Bucks and Wizards are tied this season at two apiece, as are the Heat and Wizards. Conference records? Washington: 26-20; Miami: 28-19, Milwaukee: 24-23.
- The Heat swept the Bucks in the season series, 3-0
Why this matters
This one's interesting. The Raptors are playing well, but like the actors that transform in Snickers commercials, they're not themselves in the playoffs. The wrong matchup at No. 8 could give Toronto fits, and Milwaukee pushed them to six games last season. The same could be said of the No. 6 seed, which could be a matchup against the Cavaliers. Miami just blew out Cleveland and could pose some serious issues in the playoffs. The bottom of the East playoff picture could set the right team up for success.
Western Conference
(Seed). (Team): (Record) — (Games Behind No. 1 seed)
- Houston Rockets: 62-14
- Golden State Warriors: 54-21 — 7.5
- Portland Trail Blazers: 47-29 — 15
- San Antonio Spurs: 44-32 — 18
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 44-33 — 18.5
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 44-33 — 18.5
- Utah Jazz: 43-33 — 19
- New Orleans Pelicans: 43-33 — 19
- Los Angeles Clippers: 41-35 — 21
- Denver Nuggets: 41-35 — 21
- Houston is safe as the No. 1 seed
- Golden State is safe as the No. 2 seed
- Nobody else is safe
Will Portland stay No. 3?
It sure looks that way. With their win over the Clippers on Friday, the Trail Blazers created a three-game separation between themselves and the Spurs. And here's their remaining schedule:
vs. MEM, @ DAL, @ HOU, @ SAS, @ DEN, vs. UTAH
It's not impossible for Portland to lose against Houston, San Antonio, Denver and Utah, it's just highly improbable another lower seed wins three in a row to catch them.
Welcome to the jungle
4. San Antonio — 18 GB
5. Minnesota — 18.5
6. Oklahoma City — 18.5
7. Utah — 19
8. New Orleans — 19
—
9. Los Angeles Clippers — 21
10. Denver — 21
At this point, one false move can spell doom for any one of these teams. The Jazz and Pelicans each have the same number of losses as Minny and OKC but only one fewer win. Denver and the Clippers have a lot of ground to cover, but it's not impossible for either one, or both of them, to sneak into the playoffs. Let's look at their remaining schedules:
San Antonio: vs. HOU, @ LAC, @ LAL, vs. POR, vs. SAC, @ NOP
Minnesota: vs. UTA, @ DEN, @ LAL, vs. MEM, vs. DEN
Oklahoma City: @ NOP, vs. GSW, @ HOU, @ MIA, vs. MEM
Utah: @ MIN, vs. LAL, vs. LAC, @ LAL, vs. GSW, @ POR
New Orleans: vs. OKC, vs. MEM, @ PHX, @ GSW, @ LAC, vs. SAS
Los Angeles: vs. IND, vs. SAS, @ UTAH, @ LAC, vs. NOP, vs. LAL
Denver: vs. MIL, vs. IND, vs. MIN, @ LAC, vs. POR, @ MIN
Tiebreakers
- Spurs lead Timberwolves, 2-1
- Spurs tied with OKC, 2-2
- Spurs lead Clippers, 2-0
- Spurs tied with Nuggets, 2-2
- Timberwolves won series vs. Thunder, 3-1
- Timberwolves won series vs. Jazz, 2-1
- Timberwolves swept Pelicans, 4-0
- Timberwolves swept Clippers, 4-0
- Timberwolves lead Nuggets, 2-0
- Jazz won series vs. Spurs, 3-1
- Jazz won series vs. Pelicans, 3-1
- Jazz won series vs. Clippers, 2-1
- Jazz ties with Nuggets, 2-2
- Pelicans won series vs. Spurs, 2-1
- Pelicans won series vs. Clippers, 2-1
- Nuggets won series vs. Pelicans, 2-1
- Clippers lead Nuggets, 2-0
Yeah, it's a jungle.
Why this matters
This might just be the wildest West playoff race we've seen in a long time. The Spurs are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. The Timberwolves were supposed to be a lock for the playoffs, but after Jimmy Butler tore his meniscus, they're looking a little shaky. The Jazz were out of the picture, the Rudy Gobert returned from injury and they forgot what losing was. The Pelicans lost DeMarcus Cousins to a torn Achilles, then Anthony Davis put the team on his back like Captain Planet and went full MVP runner-up mode on the league. And then there's still Denver and Los Angeles, two injury-riddled teams scrapping for the last spots, and they're actually in arm's reach.
This could end any number of ways. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
Race to the very bottom
- Phoenix Suns: 19-58
- Atlanta Hawks: 21-55 — 2.5
- Memphis Grizzlies: 21-55 — 2.5
- Orlando Magic: 22-53 — 4
- Dallas Mavericks: 23-53 — 4.5
- Sacramento Kings: 24-52 — 5.5
- Brooklyn Nets (sadly conveys to Cleveland): 24-51 — 6
- Chicago Bulls: 25-51 — 6.5
- New York Knicks: 27-49 — 8.5
- Los Angeles Lakers (conveys to Philly): 33-42 — 15
- Charlotte Hornets: 34-42 — 15.5
- Detroit Pistons (conveys to Clippers): 35-40 — 17
- Los Angeles Clippers: 41-35 — 22.5
- Denver Nuggets: 41-35 — 22.5
We won't go into tiebreakers this time around. If teams end up with an identical record, there's a coin toss to see who gets the higher draft lottery odds. For example, last season, the Knicks and Timberwolves both finished with identical records. The Timberwolves won the coin flip, so they drafted seventh and the Knicks eighth. Minnesota took Lauri Markkanen and traded him as a package for Jimmy Butler. The Knicks took Frank Ntilikina.
This year's draft class is loaded with talent from No. 1-10. Instead of listing the players here, I'll refer you to our college basketball expert Ricky O'Donnell's most recent 2018 NBA Mock Draft, where he has Slovenian guard Luka Doncic going No. 1 overall and Oklahoma's Trae Young going tenth.
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