Schedule alert! Who should be on notice in April? - ESPN

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Rachel Nichols says it seems unfair that right before the playoffs and while the 76ers are playing well, they lose Joel Embiid.

We offer a cornucopia of statistics in these schedule alert dispatches that, hopefully, help show how fatigue can seriously hinder performance during the grueling NBA grind.

But here is one figure that is far more jarring than any lopsided final score, dreadful shooting percentage or eye-popping turnover total: Two.

As in, there have now been two NBA head coaches who have stepped aside this season for severe health issues related to chronic sleep loss.

On March 19, Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue announced he was stepping aside to focus on his health, saying in a statement, "I have had chest pains and other troubling symptoms, compounded by a loss of sleep, throughout the year."

Lue, who hopes to return at some point this season, had also been coughing up blood, team sources told ESPN's Dave McMenamin.

"I ain't slept in days," Lue said back in November.

Earlier this season, Charlotte Hornets coach Steve Clifford also stepped aside for health reasons, missing 21 games for severe headaches caused by what his doctors declared to be sleep deprivation, as we noted in our February schedule alert dispatch.

"Sleep is a big deal," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters in the wake of Lue's announcement. "There's a lot of recovery that goes on when you're resting, and you need that."

On that note, we highly recommend checking out this insightful NBA.com piece from David Aldridge that focuses on the above issue. It also surveyed NBA head coaches about how much sleep they get, if it's enough and how, if not, it affects them.

This response stood out: "One coach who gets six hours on average per night said he's 'tired and fatigued all the time.' He would love to get more sleep, but it's almost impossible. He tries to compensate by taking naps on game days for half an hour up to 45 minutes."

Now, on to some other statistics.

We correctly picked nine of 12 games in March and, so far this season, have correctly picked 41 of 53 games. As we've said in every dispatch since the beginning, our success rate -- which sits at 77.4 percent -- is notably higher than where our schedule alert formula suggested we'd be at this point. (Here is where we note that we applied that formula to 10 seasons' worth of games -- from 2007-08 through 2016-17 -- and the results showed that teams facing schedule alert situations with a MahScore of 8 or higher lose 63 percent of the time.)

As always, the strength of the team, which players are available or any other factors unrelated to the schedule are not taken into account in our formula.

A couple of notables:

• Of the 41 schedule alert games lost so far this season, schedule alert teams have lost by an average of 13.4 points.

• Of those 41 schedule alert losses, 11 have been by 21 or more points, and 16 have come by at least 15 points.

• Of the 11 teams that won schedule alert games so far this season, nine of those teams are currently ranked in the top 10 of the Western Conference.

• Only one non-Western Conference team has won a schedule alert game this season: Miami.

We'll have more numbers recapping how teams performed in schedule alert games in the coming days, including a wrap-up after our final 2017-18 game this month.

For now, here's a preview of April's lone schedule alert game -- the last of the 2017-18 regular season -- and below that are recaps of such games for March:

April 9: Orlando at Milwaukee | MahScore: 8

This game would seem brutal any day of the year for a team in the Magic's position, but it feels especially cruel given that it falls in their next-to-last game of the season.

The Magic will be playing their fifth game in seven days, third game in four days and the second of a back-to-back set here. They will have played in Toronto the night before, on April 8, then will fly out immediately afterward -- gaining an hour along the way -- to Milwaukee to face the Bucks the next night. The Bucks, meanwhile, will enter this game with a one-day rest advantage.

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March schedule alerts

Timberwolves lose to the Jazz 116-108 in Salt Lake City on March 2

MahScore: 9.5

Well, this one was spicy!

As we've noted here before, it's not unusual to see technical fouls or ejections from teams that are on schedule alert.

Sleep doctors will tell you that lack of rest affects the parts of the brain that control emotional reaction and judgment, so you are more likely to lose control of your temper and respond emotionally if, say, you don't like an officiating decision.

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So, one might not be too surprised to learn that two Timberwolves players were ejected from this game -- big man Karl-Anthony Towns late in the first half for arguing with the referees and guard Jeff Teague late in the game for hip-checking Jazz guard Ricky Rubio into the courtside seats. Jazz forward Jae Crowder was also ejected after jawing with Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau, who also received a technical foul in a heated game that featured five of them.

But if the Timberwolves were a bit frayed and thus on edge, well, you can't blame them. They lost to the Trail Blazers in Portland the night before, a nationally televised game which naturally ended later than most games. Then the Timberwolves flew out immediately after -- losing an hour along the way -- for Salt Lake City, where they would close out a back-to-back against a Jazz team that had been off for three ... whole... days.

So the ingredients added up to a Jazz win, right? Especially with this being a red alert affair?

Jazz coach Quin Snyder tried to temper such talk before the game, according to the Salt Lake Tribune, when he said, "I think back-to-backs are overrated. Obviously it's a factor, but we've had, on our end, back-to-backs where we've played well and won. So I don't think you can say, 'A team is on a back-to-back, they're going to be tired that way.' I don't think it's the best way to prepare yourself for the game."

Snyder is partially right. But it's also a factor, as he admits, and it's one that can't be overlooked, especially if you consider certain energy/effort-related statistics -- via ESPN Stats & Information -- that jump off the page.

A caveat: Yes, we know that losing Towns early in the game is a crucial element as to why the following numbers are so lopsided, but it's not the only reason.

• The Timberwolves had two offensive rebounds, their fewest in a game in franchise history.

• The Jazz outscored the Timberwolves 19-0 on second-chance points. It's the second game this season in which the Timberwolves have been held scoreless on second-chance points.

Nuggets beat the Cavaliers 126-117 in Cleveland on March 3

MahScore: 8

We'll get to this game lickety-split, but first, after it was over, Nuggets coach Mike Malone was explaining his team's performance, factoring in the fact they played the night before, when he paused.

"Is today Friday or Saturday?" Malone asked reporters, according to the Denver Post. "I knew it was a weekend night."

It was a Saturday, but Malone's question harks back to our intro from March, when we noted how common disorientation can be during hectic stretches of the NBA schedule.

With that out of the way, let's break down the game ourselves -- and how Denver showed some serious grit in its league-high sixth and final schedule alert game of the 2017-18 season. (Denver's record in such games: 2-4.)

The Nuggets, who are making a late-season playoff push, came out white hot, scoring 73 points in the first half and leading by as many as 15 in the third quarter.

They finished with 19 3-pointers (their second most all season), 35 assists (their third most all season) and shot 54.7 percent from the field (their third-highest such figure all season).

Yet the Cavaliers charged back, and with 2:40 to play in the fourth quarter, Cleveland cut a double-digit lead to one point. From there, though, the Nuggets locked in, making all four of their shots to close the game while the Cavs missed three of their final four the rest of the way.

While praising the Nuggets for such an impressive effort under difficult circumstances, it's also worth considering, ever so briefly, the fact that their offensive outburst came against an atrocious defense. Cleveland entered the game ranked 28th in defensive efficiency. Since the Cavaliers' new players made their debuts on Feb. 11, Cleveland is allowing 1.49 points per chance on transition, second most of any team over that span, according to Second Spectrum data.

With that said, much credit is owed to the Nuggets for battling back.

"We put big numbers up," Malone said, according to the Post. "... But to do it in a game where it's a back-to-back and you're not in your bed until 3 o'clock in the morning speaks volumes about our guys understanding where we are right now in the season and the importance of every game."

Pistons lose to the Heat 105-96 in Miami on March 3

MahScore: 8

This marked the Pistons' fifth game in seven days, their third game in four days and the second of a back-to-back set after facing the Magic in Orlando the night before.

The Heat, meanwhile, entered this game with a one-day rest advantage and were on the eighth day of a 10-day homestand.

As one might expect, the Heat took an 18-point lead after outscoring their guests 47-20 during a 17-minute span in the first half.

While the Pistons got big performances from Blake Griffin (31 points) and Andre Drummond (22 points and 18 rebounds), they got little from anyone else. Their guards combined to shoot 17-for-51 from the field and 4-for-18 from 3-point range, as noted by the Detroit Free Press.

The Pistons also had 19 turnovers and fell to 1-13 in their last 14 games on the road.

As noted by the Associated Press, Griffin

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