After Wichita State's 2017-18 season came to an abrupt ending Friday in a first-round upset by Marshall in the NCAA Tournament, questions about the future intensified.
The question that looms over everything: Will 6-foot-4 guard Landry Shamet return to Wichita State for his junior season, or hire an agent and enter the 2018 NBA Draft? While leading WSU in scoring (14.9) and assists (5.2) this season, the 21-year-old Shamet has been a popular choice as a late first-round draft pick by mock drafts.
Shamet has approximately a month, until April 22, to decide to enter the draft. He can hire an agent, which ends his college eligibility, or he can declare for draft without signing with an agent, which makes the decision non-binding and allows him to experience the complete pre-draft process, which means working out for NBA teams, competing in the draft combine in Chicago May 16-20, and still be eligible to return to college. In that scenario, he would have until June 11 to make a final decision.
If Shamet is drafted in the first round, he is guaranteed a minimum $1.6 million starting salary, while falling to the second round would result in a non-guaranteed contract.
Shamet wasn't ready to think about the future in the minutes after Friday's loss. "I don't want to talk about that," he said .
The Eagle spoke with an NBA scout and two NBA Draft writers who discussed their evaluation of Shamet as a NBA prospect.
What they like about Shamet
Shamet's above-average skill is his shooting. In two-plus seasons at WSU, Shamet is a 43.7-percent three-point shooter on more than five attempts per game.
According to Synergy Sports Technology data, Shamet made 51.6 percent of shots coming off screens, he made 50.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts, and made 39 percent of shots when he dribbled into them (but still posted a worthwhile return because of the amount of threes made).
"He has great shot diversity," said Chris Stone, an NBA Draft writer. "He can make them off the dribble. He can make them off the catch. He can make them on the move off a screen. That's something that really helps with the point guard position in the NBA because he can play off the ball or on it, whether the team needs another creator or not."
Another attractive trait is that Shamet accomplished what he did on offense with fewer than 10 shots attempts per game. According to KenPom.com, Shamet scored 1.28 points per possession and ranked No. 22 in the nation in offensive efficiency.
"He's a shot-maker, not a volume shooter, and that's impressive," said Jarrett Sutton, a Midwest regional scout based in Kansas City. "He doesn't have to shoot the ball a lot to be productive. That's the part of Landry you love. When he's at the NBA level with NBA spacing and NBA players around him, he's going to be so productive, not just scoring but also passing. I think he checks everything off the list."
Shamet has demonstrated a good feel for how to lead an offense and his 28.8 percent assist rate ranked in the top-100 of college basketball this season. He also has the size, at 6-4, to play either guard position.
Sam Vecenie, who covers college basketball and the NBA Draft for The Athletic, views Shamet as an ideal player to lead a second unit and occasionally end up playing crunch-time minutes to space the floor, much like what Fred VanVleet is currently doing with the Toronto Raptors.
"I don't think anyone is saying Landry Shamet is going to be this All-Star-level point guard," Vecenie said. "But where he's going to fit best is sliding into a role next to an elite creator, somebody like a James Harden or a Giannis Antekounmpo, and being that second facilitator on the floor. Guys like Landry Shamet are so incredibly valuable for floor spacing and his shooting."
ESPN's Jonathan Givony made a similar assessment of Shamet in early March.
"Shamet isn't going to wow anyone with his upside, but his size, stroke, feel, pedigree and ability to play either guard spots make him an easy player to utilize in different lineup configurations," Givony wrote. "He's a solid prospect in the late first or early second round."
Sutton, the NBA scout, thinks WSU's reputation, forged by VanVleet and Ron Baker, could help Shamet, as well.
"They seem to have that DNA of being really tough and being able to check their ego at the door and they have that unselfish gene," Sutton said. "They always have that itch to proof themselves. That's a testament to Gregg Marshall and how he develops players."
What Shamet could work on
The most alarming statistic is Shamet's turnover rate, which jumped from an ideal 12.6 percent last season to 17.9 percent this season. While 2.1 turnovers per game in nearly 32 minutes as the lead ball handler isn't worrisome, the sudden increase has caught the attention of many who dissect Shamet's game.
Analysts say some of those worries could be addressed by adding more bulk to his frame, which is still on the lean side for an NBA guard, but Shamet's handles are an open question.
"It's an issue that NBA teams will explore and whatever they conclude will determine where they see him fitting on a roster, whether that's as a true point guard or somebody that's better next to a primary ball handler on the wing," Stone said. "Personally, I feel like his skill set is perfect for the latter. But for NBA teams, it's going to be a question of how real that turnover rate is."
The question became a little more glaring after Shamet's performance in the NCAA Tournament loss to Marshall, where he went 3 for 13 from the field, missed all seven three-pointers, and had eight assists to four turnovers. Everyone seems willing to write off the poor shooting as a one-off performance, but Stone said it's possible it could affect Shamet's draft stock.
"Theoretically one game shouldn't swing a prospect's stock, it should be more about the body of work," Stone said. "But I do think it's possible some NBA executives might be swayed by one game because they haven't watched as much college basketball as their scouts. But they're the ones that makes the over-arching decisions and they could make that decision based on a smaller sample size."
Sutton, who has consulted with several NBA teams in recent seasons, says Shamet's NCAA Tournament performance does not affect his standing on his mock draft board.
"I'm not going to look at (Friday) when Landry didn't play well and say he's not in my first round anymore because of that one game," Sutton said. "He's stayed on my board pretty much in the same spot the whole year, in the late first round, because I look at other guys who play his position and I still like what Landry brings to the table more."
The one thing that Sutton would like to see Shamet develop? An alpha-dog mentality.
According to Synergy data, Shamet only took 18 percent of WSU's shots when it was a two-possession game with less than four minutes remaining. Shamet shot 5 of 17 in such situations.
"He's almost unselfish to a fault," Sutton said. "He's a willing and able passer, but sometimes he's too passive. He's got the ability to put the team on his back, but that's not him by nature or really his personality. And that's OK, but there are times where he needs to show in a big moment when his team needs life that he can take over and create his own shot."
What should Shamet do?
Analysts expect Shamet to declare for the draft to take advantage of the process of working out for NBA teams and competing in the combine in Chicago.
To Stone, it boils down to one question following that process for Shamet.
"What could he improve on to convince NBA teams that he's a different player than he is right now?" Stone said. "Maybe clean up the turnovers and put on more weight to get more explosive."
If Shamet receives feedback from NBA teams that they would feel more confident drafting him in the first round if he made certain improvements, then he could be persuaded to return to Wichita State.
But there are plenty of cautionary tales of players who returned with hopes of bettering their draft stock, only to fall out of the first round completely. That's why Stone would advise Shamet to turn pro now.
"I tend to think that kids should go make money while they can because you only have a finite number of years to play basketball and if there's money on the table, then you should take it," Stone said.
Vecenie agrees with the assessment, but add one final caveat for Shamet, who has had two stress fractures since coming to WSU: Get your feet checked out by a doctor.
"NBA teams have become increasingly more vigilant about medical testing and they're going to do their due diligence since Landry already has two stress fractures," Vecenie said. "If I were Landry, I would want to go into the process with a very realistic assessment of where my feet are in terms of long-term viability and have a plan to foster and accentuate my lower-body strength. That's something he should be very cognizant of going into this process."
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