The Warriors and Pelicans have put on quite an offensive display in the first three games of their Western Conference semifinal. Now, the Pelicans aim to even this NBA Playoff series at 2-2 when they host the Warriors on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Golden State opened as a 4.5-point road favorite and now is laying 5.5. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas believes will be scored, opened at 232 and is now at 231.5.
Before picking either side, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is leaning toward the Under for Game 4 and it has also locked in a strong against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations.
We can also tell you the model is expecting huge performances from Kevin Durant (30 points, eight rebounds) and Stephen Curry (26 points, six assists) as well as from Pelicans Anthony Davis (33 points, 13 boards) and 22 points and eight assists from Jrue Holiday. But who prevails? And what side of the spread should you back?
The model knows the Warriors can cover the spread if they can shoot better from deep. In Game 3, they were 9-for-31 from three-point range, with Curry and Klay Thompson a combined 6-for-18. Getting Durant more active in the paint gives Golden State the option of allowing him to power to the hoop for close-range shots or kick-outs beyond the arc.
But the Pelicans can keep it within the spread, or win outright, if Rajon Rondo continues dishing the rock like he did Friday. The veteran point guard scored only four points, but racked up a man-sized 21 assists as he involved all of his teammates on offense.
So which side of Warriors vs. Pelicans do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to check out the strong against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations.
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